VOICES ANAND MENON
to be finalised. For one thing, the referendum did not specify the level at which the quota should be set. For another, because Switzerland is altering the terms of its agreement with the EU, the latter may limit the degree to which Switzerland can benefit from participation in EU programmes and the single market. The Union has already postponed talks with the Swiss on their participation in its multi-billion- euro research and educational schemes, and excluded Swiss students from exchange schemes. The timing of the Swiss move is also crucial.
Given the demands made by some euroscpetics that the UK seeks to renegotiate the terms of, or even end, its membership of the European Union, there are those in the European Commission who are anxious to concede as little as possible to the Swiss to avoid setting a precedent that can be drawn upon by the UK. More broadly, it does tend to be the case that opinions on migration become less positive in times of economic hardship. Politicians in several member states, including the UK, the Netherlands, and Germany, have expressed disquiet about the dangers of large-scale migration from poorer, southern EU member states to the richer north. Yet, for the moment, it is only in the UK that there is significant political support for the idea of restricting freedom of movement – one of the four freedoms on which the single market is based. Consequently, it is unlikely that these core provisions of EU law will be altered.
“ The fear of the consequences
of leaving the EU might prove a powerful motivating force
France is keen on a closer political (as well as economic) union, with Germany hesitantly agreeing, being tired of propping up the economy. What about the rest of EU – is the majority trend towards more union, looser union or the status quo? There has, over the last few years, been a marked hardening of the tone of some erstwhile pro- integration states towards the EU. The Dutch are perhaps the clearest example of a member state that was traditionally staunchly pro-integration and is now demanding limits to further centralisation and a greater respect for the principle of subsidiarity. Other states, in contrast, perceive a need to
”
tighten integration, not least to ensure the more effective functioning of the Eurozone. The problem confronting both sides in this debate, however, are the difficulties of any attempt to revise the EU treaties. In France, whatever President Hollande might think of the objective need for treaty change, he is reluctant to support such an initiative as he might be forced into holding a referendum on the outcome – which he is likely to lose. Moreover, officials from several member states point to another problem with treaty change, notably the danger that negotiations would be held hostage by a British government anxious to secure the ‘renegotiation’ of the terms of membership that is has promised.
28 SOCIETY NOW SPRING 2014
Do UK voters care about EU membership as much as
politicians think?
Research has found that in the majority of referenda, whatever the subject, the electorate tends to vote for the least risky path – ie, no change (such as the referendum on proportional representation). Do you think that this is the likely outcome in the case of a referendum on membership of the EU? An awful lot can happen between now and
2017. Polls currently suggest that, whilst a majority would vote to leave the EU were a referendum held immediately, a far greater majority would vote to remain in should the UK manage to renegotiate its position within it. That being said, most member states seem opposed to a major revision of the EU treaties, which raises the question as to how such a renegotiation might be carried out. Experience does suggest that fear of the consequences of leaving might prove a powerful motivating force in the event of a referendum. However, much will depend on circumstances at the time of any vote. Take one hypothetical scenario that YouGov President Peter Kellner has elaborated on: should the Conservatives perform poorly at the next General Election, it is perfectly possible that they will replace their leader. In this case, we face the prospect of an unpopular mid- term Labour or Lib-Lab government confronting a Conservative opposition led by a Eurosceptic and possibly recommending exit. This might alter the electoral maths, and is a key reason why Ed Miliband does not want there to be a referendum on EU membership should he become Prime Minister. n
i
Anand Menon is Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. In January 2014 he was appointed research co-ordinator for the ESRC initiative on ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’
Email
anand.menon@
kcl.ac.uk Telephone 0777 304 3140
Web
www.kcl.ac.uk/artshums/depts/europeanstudies/people/ staff/academic/
menona.aspx
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