VOICES ANAND MENON Choosing wisely
Professor Anand Menon, research co-ordinator for the ESRC initiative on ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’, discusses the UK’s complicated relationship with Europe and the posssible outcomes of a referendum on EU membership. Can the UK negotiate a new relationship and if we leave the EU what do we stand to lose or gain?
Does the general public in the UK really care as much about the EU as politicians think? Politicians are gambling both ways on this.
Polling indicates that only a minority of voters really care that much about the EU. In a YouGov survey of issue saliency carried out in late 2013, only 18 per cent put the EU amongst the three most important issues confronting the UK, while only seven per cent said it was the issue that mattered most to them and their family (ranking 11 out of 12 issues). On the other hand, a rising proportion of the electorate display strong ‘anti- politics’ sentiments, exemplified in part by a belief that they have little or no say over government. Whilst the EU itself might not be a major subject for most people then, refusing them a say over UK membership might entail electoral risks.
“ It is virtually impossible to stipulate
accurate facts about the relative costs and benefits of UK membership Faced with these mixed signals, political parties
have adopted contrasting positions. For some, arguments about the EU, and particularly those pertaining to the free movement provisions it upholds, are a powerful electoral tool. UKIP clearly stands to do pretty well in the European elections in May. Although polling by Lord Ashcroft has suggested that Tory voters have switched to UKIP for a variety of reasons and not just because of its
” ‘The UK in a
Changing Europe’ initiative will follow the debate about the relationship between the UK and the EU and ‘fact-check’ the arguments put forward
views on the EU, some Conservative backbenchers have tacked in a Eurosceptic direction as a means of competing more effectively with UKIP challengers. Ed Miliband, in contrast, has recently announced that he would not hold a referendum on UK membership of the EU, except in the (unlikely) event of the Union being given major new powers.
Do we tend to focus on the EU negatives – waste, bureaucracy, too much regulation – and ignore its achievements: preserving peace in Europe post-1945; encouraging movement of people and goods within Europe; and creating a powerful body for trade with large nations? European integration has certainly provided significant general benefits: it played a role (albeit not as central as some of its most ardent supporters are wont to claim) in preserving peace following the Second World War; it helped to entrench democracy in Greece, Spain and Portugal following their accession; and it was crucial in ensuring peaceful transitions to liberal democracy in the countries of East and Central Europe. None of these undertakings, however, now achieve the popular resonance they once did. Currently, the Union lacks the kind of overall narrative that could be used to legitimise integration as a project. Partly as a result, many debates about it focus on the specific impacts of its actions. Those engaged in such debates tend to emphasise those aspects of the Union – positive or negative – that reinforce their arguments. Consequently, the conversation about the EU has tended to lack nuance. Whilst membership of the EU certainly brings with it numerous benefits – not least the economic benefits conferred by participation in the single market – its impact is certainly not positive at all times and on all sections of society. Indeed, like any body charged with making distributive decisions, the Union benefits some of its citizens more than others. Whilst some farmers benefit from the Common Agricultural Policy, consumers have to content with inflated food prices. Social regulations might generate costs for employers whilst offering greater protection for employees.
What are the likely effects on UK trade with Europe if it leaves the EU? Would things continue pretty much as normal? That depends fundamentally on the kind of relationship the UK manages to negotiate with the EU should it leave. There are several possible
26 SOCIETY NOW SPRING 2014
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