Special Focus on Independent Oil & Gas
Sector Themes For 2012
In addition to consolidation, we have identified several key sectoral themes that we think will feature prominently through 2012 and beyond. In most cases, these are already starting to have a material impact on the landscape of the industry and in some cases, such as US shale gas, a material impact on short-term commodity pricing.
US Shale Oil: Interest in US shale plays has been a key driver in US M&A activity within the oil & gas sector. Significant bid premiums have been paid by foreign players such as BHP Billiton, Sinopec, Total, Marubeni and Statoil, in an effort to secure a foothold and acreage positions in the key US shale basins.
The industry’s attention on, and development of, shale gas plays in the US - which has seen the US grow into the world’s largest producer of natural gas, and has in turn had a material impact on Henry Hub pricing - has now turned to shale oil, where it is anticipated that the success can be repeated.
Pre-Salt Basinal Plays: Given the exploration success and materiality of discoveries to date in the Brazilian pre-salt Santos and Campos basins, there are high expectations for the equivalent basins in West Africa (Gabon, Angola and Namibia), which are believed to mirror the geology of Brazil. There has already been some success this year, with an announcement by Maersk Oil that it has made its first pre-salt discovery in Block-23 of the Kwanza basin, offshore Angola. The well flowed 3,000bopd under a mini-DST.
Ophir Energy will be looking to drill its pre-salt prospects offshore Gabon in late-2012, and several other companies, including Chariot Oil & Gas and Tower Resources, will be drilling in the pre-salt offshore Namibia. In addition, the pre-salt geology of Kazakhstan is being targeted by Max Petroleum, which recently spudded its first pre-salt exploration well on the Emba-B prospect. The results of this well are expected in spring 2012.
LNG/GTL: Courtesy of the material exploration success experienced offshore Tanzania and Mozambique, resulting in multi-TCF gas discoveries by Cove Energy, Anadarko, BG Group, ENI and Ophir Energy, LNG will remain at the forefront of the sector in 2012. We expect to see a significant level of activity in the East African region, both at the drill-bit and at a commercial level.
In addition, the development of shale gas, in both the US and other regions, could add materially to global LNG volumes. In parallel, Shell’s high-profile Pearl GTL project in Qatar has also raised industry awareness of the Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) process as a monetisation route for large, stranded gas resources, and may, in some cases, offer an alternative route to market other than LNG.
Unconventional Gas/Coal Bed Methane (CBM) Resources: The development of tight gas reservoirs and CBM in the EU, India, China and Australia will play a growing role in the energy diets of these regions. In many cases, the key de-risking step in the development of company-making projects is a clear demonstration of the reservoir characterisation, resulting in operational competence in completion of development wells and/or fracture stimulation strategy.
Oil Price Outlook For 2012
Our view on the oil price, which is predicated by the visibility of several strong indicators for a risk premium to be applied to the oil price, is reflected in recently reported trading activity, which has seen oil traders taking “fat tail” event positions which point to an oil either significantly below or above US$100 per bbl.
Possible “Price Positive” Disruptive Scenarios
There are certainly significant risks to the upside, currently, mostly coming from the Middle East. We detail the main risks in Table 1, in order of their potential effect on the oil price.
In addition to those listed in the table, there is always the risk of strikes, terrorist attacks and other short-term disruption in other exporting countries, such as Venezuela and Nigeria. For example, we note the national strike against petrol price increases in Nigeria, which started on 9 January 2011.
Drillers and Dealers :::
::: February 2012 Edition
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62