06 SHOW PREVIEW: BRAU BEVIALE 2011


in 2011, the crisis was undisputedly an enormous shock and exposed a number of fundamental weaknesses of the economy. The demographic change in Europe is in full


swing. The populations of most of the early industrialised countries, such as Germany or France, are aging and shrinking in numbers. Despite continuing immigration, the number of Europeans (including Russia and the Ukraine) will decline overall by 41 million from the present 732 to an expected 691 million by 2050. On the other hand, the number of those older than 64 years will rise by an appreciable 70 million from 119 to 189 million. Every fourth European will then be older than 65 years, compared with only every sixth at present


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(UN Secretariat World Population Prospects, March 2010). Even though investors and analysts


don’t want to hear it, Europe’s brewers never tire of pointing out that the equation of rising gross domestic product = rising consumption has no longer worked out in Europe for years. Alcohol consumption in most member states of the EU has been declining for decades, as WHO noted with satisfaction in 2010. It states demographic as well as socio-cultural reasons for this, and not least changes in consumption habits. The vodka, beer and wine zones once so typical of Europe have disappeared. Wine is growing in popularity in the Nordic countries, whereas wine


consumption is dropping in the South and beer is advancing slowly. Most of the countries of Central and Eastern


Europe show a similar development in alcohol consumption. For example, many consumers in Russia have changed from vodka to beer, which caused beer consumption to reach the top mark of almost 80 litres per head in 2007. However, beer consumption has fallen since then – to less than 70 litres in 2011 (Carlsberg Group, February 2011), which is attributed to the economic crisis and the increased beer tax. Carlsberg and its Russian subsidiary Baltika Breweries expect beer production to grow by two to four per cent in 2011, but it appears doubtful that the magic 80-litre mark can ever be topped again if the


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