4 FBJ FREIGHT BUSINESS JOURNAL CONTACTS 2011


SALES JOHN SAUNDERS - PUBLISHER Tel: +44 (0)151 427 6800 Fax: +44 (0)151 427 1796 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 102026 john.saunders@fbj-online.com


RAY GIRVAN Tel: +44 (0)1691 718 045 Mobile: +44 (0)7790 000443 ray.girvan@fbj-online.com


EDITORIAL


CHRIS LEWIS - EDITOR Tel: +44 (0)208 645 0666 Mobile: +44 (0)7778 106433 chris.lewis@fbj-online.com


GILES LARGE Tel: +44 (0)1728 685 558


MARTIN ROEBUCK Tel: +44 (0)20 8657 0138


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ADVERTISEMENT PRODUCTION


LORRAINE CHRISTIAN Tel: +44 (0)151 427 6800 lorraine.christian@fbj-online.com


WILL PLANT Tel: +44 (0)151 427 6800 will.plant@fbj-online.com


HEAD OFFICE


FREIGHT BUSINESS JOURNAL Saunders Associates Ltd Station House Mersey Road Liverpool UK L17 6AG


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Chris Lewis


OPINION FROM THE EDITOR


As we prepared the last issue of FBJ, all of two months ago, the first stirrings of the wave of revolutions was just beginning to make itself felt, in Tunisia. But we could not have predicted that, by the time this issue of the paper was in


preparation, not only would the Egyptian government have fallen and governments in Bahrain and Yemen teetering but that Libya would have been effectively split in two – and then the whole Middle East situation been swept off the front pages by the most devastating earthquake and tsunami ever seen in Japan, with nuclear power


stations threatening to go into meltdown. Then the Japan emergency itself became the second story as European and US jets bombed Libya. The scenes of turmoil and horror on the TV screens show why the old Chinese saying, “May you live in interesting times” is a curse and not an expression of goodwill.


For anyone living in or with family and friends in these countries, all this is terrifying. But we do need to put things into some perspective. The Japanese economy has been hit hard, but it still functioning, at least partly. Yes, it will take many years to fully recover but, thanks to its comprehensive and efficient logistics system, we predict that it will recover rather more rapidly than poor Haiti after its earthquake where the already dire situation was made infinitely worse by the complete seizing up of the island’s ports and airports in the immediate aftermath. International shipping and air services to Japan at least resumed pretty quickly.


The longer term effects of all this turmoil are more difficult to guess, but they will be profound – as profound, if not more so, than 9/11 almost a decade ago. We don’t yet know what the final outcome in the Middle East will be. If it does usher in a new age of democracy, all well and good but getting there will be a long and painful process lasting many years of political and economic turmoil. This is bound to have an effect on oil prices. Even the Japanese situation could affect the latter. The nuclear nightmare that followed the quake could well dampen the enthusiasm of other governments for nuclear power programmes, even in parts of the world not prone to earthquakes. Less nuclear power generation will mean more demand for gas and oil – which of course means that the price of the latter will go up yet again.


Suddenly all those conferences about reconfiguring supply chains to


make them less energy-intensive sound a lot more relevant than they did a few weeks ago.


ISSUE 2 2011


FBJ has already become established as the only UK and one of the few pan-European Multimodal newspapers. The comments we have received prove there is still room for a hard copy publication with the freighting industry. You don’t have to look at a screen all day!


FBJ boasts the most informative and authoritative source of information with unrivalled in-depth knowledge of the rapidly changing freight business environment.


As the definitive publication within the sea, air, road and rail freight sectors, each issue includes regular news and analysis, in-depth coverage discovering the business decisions behind the news stories, shipper and exporter reports, opinion, geographical features, political and environmental issues.


If you have any stories or letters which should be of interest or any feedback on FBJ, please contact our editor Chris Lewis - +44 (0)208 6450666 chris.lewis@fbj-online.com


NEXT ISSUE


Our next issue will include features on Malta, UK North-East and Ro Ro. There will also be our regular IT Section and news pages. For further details contact John Saunders - +44 (0) 151 427 6800 john.saunders@fbj-online.com


CIRCULATION


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After all this doom and gloom, it comes as a relief to wish all attendees at Multimodal in Birmingham a happy and successful event. As a certain political party was fond of singing back in 1997, things can only get better.


This year’s event promises to be the brightest and best ever, so the organisers inform me. It will be a chance to catch up with old friends and make new ones and no doubt chew the fat over the finer points of supply chain configuration, airfreight rates and slow steaming into the small hours of the morning, for those that are so inclined. With luck, some of us will at last have some good news to report and if not, as the old proverb has it, a problem shared is a problem halved. Certainly, should the sun finally break through the winter clouds over Birmingham in early April, we can take that as a good omen. Whether it will or not is another matter – we have learned from experience not to make too many predictions.


The end of oil – it’s closer than you think


The world could soon be facing a major shortage of oil, and this would have major implications for supply chains, warned Nick Gazzard of value chain experts, Incept. He told the Freight by Water conference in Bristol on 16 March that almost all analyses pointed to a massive and permanent hike in oil prices that would make today’s $100 a barrel look a bargain. Economic analysts Chatham House – not known for their love of hyperbole – were suggesting that the oil price could hit $200 a barrel as early as 2013. This in turn would lead to major transport cost increases. The problem with many assessments of oil supplies was that they were based on the assumption that the world had major undiscovered, easily accessible


sources of oil. But this was, to say the least, debatable and, moreover, many of the current analyses massively overstated the oil reserves of existing major producers such as Saudi Arabia. Even more soberingly, if no major resources of accessible oil were discovered – by no means inconceivable - the world would actually run out of oil as early as 2030. The current turmoil in the Middle East ratcheted up the pressure even further. A major and permanent hike in oil prices could significantly increase road freight transport costs, Gazzard continued. However, there were measures that could be taken to bring them down again. One would be to reduce road’s share of the total


freight market down from 64% currently to around 50% and also take steps to reduce empty running. However, rail and waterway had lately been losing market share to road, he said. Concerted government action was needed to develop canal wharves or rail sidings.


Many shippers also tended to force their carriers to do things that increased their fuel consumption – and their CO2 emissions – by imposing demanding on- time delivery standards, for example. But experience from ECR France suggested that initiatives such as collaborative supply chains or switching to short-sea shipping could make a step change in reducing fuel consumption.


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