DR. DARREL GOOD Extension Economist University of Illinois


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outlook grain


orn, soybean, and wheat prices have experi- enced an impressive rally over the past month. From the lows in late June to the high on Au-


gust 2, December 2010 corn futures rallied nearly $.75, November 2010 soybean futures rallied $1.40, and September wheat futures rallied $2.55. The increase in prices was triggered by the June 30


USDA reports showing smaller than expected June 1 domestic inventories of corn and soybeans and smaller than expected planted acreage of corn. June 1 wheat inventories were larger than expected, but prices increased based on prospects for smaller crops outside the U.S. Large year-over-year declines in wheat production are expected in Russia, Kaza- khstan, and Canada. Last year, those three countries exported 1.6 billion bushels of wheat, or 41 percent of the total non U.S. exports. Crop prospects in Russia and Kazakhstan have


continued to deteriorate and the crop in western Eu- rope came under some late stress. Foreign wheat pro- duction could be down as much as 4 percent this year. In addition to the ongoing concerns about world wheat production, there are some concerns about the yield potential for the U.S. corn and soybean crops. While crop condition ratings have remained high, the impact of the unusual combination of extremely wet and warm conditions in June and July in the Corn Belt are not clear. Total June and July rainfall in the Corn Belt was the second largest in the past 50 years; only 1993 had a larger total. The two-month average temperature in the Corn Belt was the fourth highest of the past 50 years. This combination of extreme


Bollworm Alert In Soybean


DR. GUS LORENZ


crease and we have observed and had reports on numbers as high as 75 bollworms per 25 sweeps. We have seen many fields at levels from 25-40/ 25 sweeps. As this situation has spread across the state we are


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beginning to see less than adequate control with pyrethroids such as Karate, Mustang Max, Brigade, etc. This was first observed in Louisiana and Missis- sippi and now we are beginning to see where appli- cations are not cleaning up infestations of bollworms and in several cases failing to reduce numbers below threshold. In some cases application may be a factor but certainly when the number of failures increase dramatically other factors may be involved. Here are some recommendations for treating bollworms, par- ticularly in these high infestation level situations: • Application volume of 5 GPA by air and 10 GPA by


ground • Add a surfactant or crop oil – with the high heat


we are experiencing this may help get the material down in the canopy • In high infestations (2X threshold) tankmix


pyrethroid with 0.5 lb acephate to improve control Remember, when sampling for bollworm you have


to get in there and dig them out. Sweep deep in the canopy and make visual observations of the plant as you go. Many people are underestimating this popu- lation due to poor sampling technique.


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DR. GUS LORENZ: Associate Department Head/En- tomology, University of Arkansas


4• MidAmerica Farmer Grower / August 6, 2010 LONOKE, ARK.


s we have mentioned in the last few updates we have been experiencing a high level of bollworm activity in soybean. Numbers continue to in-


Supply Concerns Drive Crop Prices


rainfall and temperatures had not been observed in the previous 50 years. Additional crop yield concerns are being generated by the very warm start to August and the prospects for additional stress on the crops in the Delta region. Supply concerns have come at a time of generally


strong demand for U.S. crops. With just under 5 weeks left in the 2009-10 marketing year, it appears that both corn and soybean exports could be slightly larger than the current USDA forecasts. Corn exports need to average 38 million bushels per week during August to reach the forecast of 1.95 billion bushels. The average for the six weeks ended July 29 was 40.1 million. For soybeans, weekly exports during August need to average 4.8 million bushels to reach the fore- cast of 1.46 billion bushels. The average for the six weeks ended on July 29 was 7 million.


While soybean exports could exceed the USDA pro-


jection, the 2009-10 marking year domestic soybean crush may fall a bit short of the projected 1.745 bil- lion bushels. The crush for July and August needs to total 250.9 million bushels to reach that projection, 2.3 million more than crushed in July and August of 2009. Monthly crush was less than in the previous year in April, May, and June. While the crush in July and August last year was very small, a year-over-year increase is not expected this year. The 2010-11 U.S. wheat marketing year began on


June 1. Wheat export inspections during the first 8.4 weeks of the year were reported at 148 million bushels, 31 million more than exported during the same period last year. Unshipped export sales as of


CONTINUED ON PAGE 18 Paid Advertisement


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