From August 1953 to February 1958, Orshansky worked as a food
economist for USDA in a successor office to the Bureau of Human
Orshansky told several interesting stories about
Nutrition and Home Economics, where she had worked before. She
events during the development of her thresholds:
planned and directed the collection and analysis of data on food con-
➤ As noted in the sidebar, “How Mollie Orshansky Developed the
sumption and expenditures of American households.
Poverty Thresholds,” Orshansky based her thresholds on USDA’s
In 1956 and 1957, Orshansky was the senior coauthor of two
economy food plan. She had been working with the USDA food
reports on family food expenditures and food consumption based on
plans at least as early as 1948, and so was familiar with them. In
a food consumption survey of rural families in the North Central
the context of developing poverty thresholds for families, she
[Midwest] region. She was one of a number of people who gave tech-
became concerned about the economy food plan not allowing
nical assistance in the preparation of a series of reports on USDA’s
for purchases of food away from home, either at work or school.
1955 Household Food Consumption Survey, and she wrote a
major section of a summary report on the same survey. This 1955
For the purpose of developing poverty thresholds, she wanted
Household Food Consumption Survey was the source from which
to modify the cost of the food plan by adding $0.15 a day per
Orshansky would calculate the “multiplier” she later used to develop
person to it to allow for the husband in a family to buy coffee
her poverty thresholds.
at work or for children to buy snacks. However, her supervisor
In February 1958, Orshansky went to work for the Social Security
would not allow her to do so.
Administration (SSA) in an office that later became the Office of
➤ One major source for Orshansky’s July 1963 article was a
Research and Statistics (ORS). ORS seems to have been one of a
special tabulation of Current Population Survey (CPS) data that
small number of federal offices that provided significant work oppor-
the Social Security Administration (SSA) purchased from the
tunities for women professionals at this time; during Orshansky’s first
decade there, both the director and the deputy director were women.
U.S. Census Bureau for $2,500. The results showed the median
Orshansky had several titles at SSA, but can best be described as a
annual income of nonfarm, female-headed families with
social science research analyst.
children was $2,340. Orshansky was horrified when she realized
Orshansky performed a number of assignments during her early
half of these families lived for a year on less than SSA paid for
years at SSA. Her first was to prepare an article on standard budgets
one statistical tabulation. She later commented, “I determined I
(family budgets) and practices in setting fee scales in 21 large cities.
was going to get my $2,500 worth.”
She also prepared several annual updates of an analysis of the income
➤In the CPS, thousands of sample cases represent millions
sources of “young survivors” (widows under age 65, particularly those
with minor children). She prepared a medical care standard for the
of families and persons in the general population. Published
Budget for an Elderly Couple, of which the Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Census Bureau reports based on survey data always
(BLS) was preparing an interim revision. She also prepared data for
show figures that relate to the national totals of families and
16 charts on financial resources of the aged for the Chart Book for the
unrelated individuals. However, when Orshansky got the results
1961 White House Conference on Aging.
of her $2,500 tabulation of CPS data, they gave her only the
While Orshansky’s development of the poverty thresholds was a
unweighted counts of sample households in various poverty
major milestone in both social policy history and statistical history, it
and nonpoverty categories; SSA’s payment to the bureau had
grew out of ordinary work activities—an “answer for the record” for
not been enough to pay for computing weighted national
a congressional hearing and an in-house research project. During a
totals for her, so she had to do the work herself, “by hand,” to
1960 congressional hearing, a senator asked HEW Secretary Arthur
calculate weighted national totals from the unweighted sample
Flemming if he had figures on how much it costs a retired couple to count. She also calculated the poverty gap “by hand” for her
live. Flemming said HEW would provide an answer for the record, January 1965 article. She didn’t even use a calculator.
and Orshansky was the civil servant who prepared an unattributed
submission for the record. She mentioned the Budget for an Elderly
Couple, which BLS was then revising, and a similar budget prepared
In January 1964—only six months after the publication of
by a group in New York. In addition, she provided two rough mea-
Orshansky’s obscure article—President Lyndon Johnson declared a
sures of income inadequacy for an elderly couple that she developed
war on poverty. In a chapter on the problem of poverty in its 1964
by applying multipliers derived from USDA’s 1955 Household Food
annual report, the president’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)
Consumption Survey to the cost of USDA’s low-cost food plan (at that
put forward its own rough measure of poverty: $3,000 for families
time, the cheapest of USDA’s three food plans)—almost exactly as she
of all sizes and $1,500 for unrelated individuals. The CEA’s $3,000
was to do several years later in her 1963 and 1965 poverty articles.
figure was not derived in any way from Orshansky’s work; however,
In early 1963, Orshansky was assigned to do an in-house research
the CEA report did cite two dollar figures from Orshansky’s July 1963
project on poverty as it affects children. At that time (the year before
article (without giving her name as the author) to show that the CEA’s
the War on Poverty was declared), there was no generally accepted
$3,000 figure was a reasonable level for a poverty line.
measure of poverty, so to carry out this research project, Orshansky
When Orshansky saw the January 1964 CEA report (including the
developed one (see “How Mollie Orshansky Developed the Poverty
reference to her dollar figures), she was disturbed by the CEA’s failure
Thresholds” on the previous page for her methodology). In July 1963,
to vary its $3,000 family poverty line by family size, as this resulted
she published results of her research project in a Social Security Bulletin
in understating the number of children in poverty relative to aged
article, “Children of the Poor,” in which she also described the initial
persons. The CEA figure “led to the odd result that an elderly couple
version of her poverty thresholds.
SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 17
SEPTEMBER AMSTAT FINAL.indd 17 8/20/08 2:26:55 PM
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