LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Dear Amstat News, ment, “Discernible human influences now extend to other
aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental
After reading “ASA Endorses average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind pat-
Conclusions of UN IPCC Climate terns.” You are joking, right?
Change Report” in the January 2008 Al Gore, winner of the Nobel Prize, is quoted as say-
Amstat News, I find myself in agreement ing the Earth has “a fever.” How would anyone know the
with most, but not all, of the key points. Earth has “a fever”? What is a normal temperature for the
I am writing because I am in dis- Earth? Aren’t these two questions we as statisticians should
agreement with the central point be endorsing as begging to be answered by those who sup-
of the article—that the ASA port the IPCC conclusions? Some scientists tell us the Earth
endorses the IPCC conclusions. was a few degrees warmer in the 1850s than it was 20,000
I am in disagreement for two rea- years before. Endorsing policy statements like Mr. Gore’s
sons. First, the ASA as an organiza- or the IPCC’s seems to beg also stating explicitly what time
tion should not endorse policy state- frame the ASA endorses in making a determination of the
ments, but rather remain completely Earth’s fever. Should we be studying 100-year samples, 500-
open-minded in all matters, especially year samples, or less, or more? In terms of the Earth’s his-
those with politics seeping from every pore. Second, to not con- tory, it seems to me that 500 years is nothing. I suspect the Earth’s
sider or present highly recognized and expert alternative views and temperature is cyclical, rising and falling in cycles that may take
opinions is anathema to any and all highly educated individu- hundreds, or even thousands, of years to complete before the next
als. By endorsing a policy statement, and then to recommend all cycle begins. It should remain open as to whether or not the cur-
statisticians get involved, seems like putting the cart before the rent perceived upswing is caused by human carbon dioxide emis-
horse. I imagine the IPCC will be happy to have us not rocking sions since there are paleoclimatologists who believe atmospheric
their boat, but isn’t that what we are all about? Going wherever carbon dioxide follows global temperature, rather than leading it.
the data take us and to heck with the policy wonks who have Additionally, David Crisp, senior scientist for the Orbiting Carbon
their own axes to grind? Thank God for Galileo and the scien- Observatory at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, recently was quoted
tific method. Over and over again, we find the darkest periods in [as saying], “So far, scientists have no reliable way to measure all
human history always occur when an individual or group gains these fluctuating carbon emissions. Temperature predictions based
power and not only believes their way is the only way and the right on future carbon dioxide levels, therefore, could overestimate or
null
By endorsing a policy statement, and then to recommend all statisticians get involved,
seems like putting the cart before the horse.
null
way, but that it is their duty to force everyone else to adopt their dangerously understate the risk of greenhouse warming. A quarter
way, or else. There are many, many, many well-known and well- of all carbon dioxide that is emitted is going somewhere and we
regarded scientists in every specialty who have serious reservations don’t know where, which raises a lot of red flags.” It all sounds a bit
about the whole “climate change” debate. To not present those is a too fuzzy for me to endorse any position other than much further
disservice, I believe, to the entire ASA membership and thinking, research needs to be done before we can definitively state with any
open-minded people everywhere and in every walk of life. degree of certainty what is or isn’t normal, what is or isn’t going on,
To quote you, “Most of the observed increase in globally aver- and what amount, if any, of a global temperature blip can validly
aged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to and reliably be assigned to human activity.
the observed increase in anthropogenic (of, relating to, or resulting In closing, I don’t consider myself a Democrat or a Republican.
from the influence of human beings on nature) greenhouse gas I do think we should not pollute and should achieve energy self-
concentrations.” Isn’t it our duty as statisticians to help determine sufficiency. I believe “global warming” is a wave that many can ride
“likelihood”? And how we would do that is one aspect missing and have a successful career at, but it is never a good career move
from the article. To continue your quote and subsequent endorse- to be one of the lemmings and jump off the cliff in so doing. We,
as an organization, should volunteer every resource we can spare to
Correction:
the global warming research endeavor, but we should not openly
In the January issue of Amstat News, Brent A. Coull and Hans C. van
espouse one side or another in doing so. We should work with the
Houwelingen were listed as participants of the 2007 conference of the
IPCC, but not support its or any positions blindly.
Greek Statistical Institute. In fact, they did not attend. The others listed

Respectfully,
as attendees participated in recent years, but not all of them partici-
pated in 2007. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused.
Peter Perugini
4 AMSTAT NEWS MARCH 2008
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