STATISTICIAN’S VIEW
Nick Fisher warns against believing Disraeli’s infamous quip about statistics and urges
a professional approach to its practice.
Figures Fool When Fools Figure
Nick Fisher, Past President of the Statistical Society of Australia
Australian governments and public agencies are risking
bad policy decisions through poor statistical practice.
Nick Fisher is past president of the Statistical Society of
Australia, principal of Value Metrics Australia, and visiting
professor at the University of Sydney. ConScience is a
W
e live in a world awash with numbers. They underpin
column for Australians to express forthright views about
far-reaching decisions being made about our health,
national issues. Views expressed are those of the author.
safety, security, social and economic progress, environ-
ment, jobs, and daily lives.
You are unlikely to trust your life to an untrained doctor, your
office building to an unqualified engineer, or your teeth to an unac-
credited dentist. You probably wouldn’t risk your money with an
accountant lacking professional recognition. Yet, every day we are
made to rely on policies affecting our health, prosperity, and secu-
null
An extraordinary catalogue of
rity that are founded on unprofessional use of statistical methods. misadventures … have resulted from
Many of the people who collect, analyze, and interpret these
numbers are not trained or qualified to do so—managers, public
failure to deal with statistical issues
servants, doctors, engineers, economists, journalists, politicians, and
with due care.
sociologists. They may be well qualified in their own fields, but do
not have any statistical training or background. Resulting decisions
null
can be fatally flawed, and may adversely affect millions of people.
Statistics is a complex and delicate science requiring high-level
Quantitative concepts are intrinsic to all stages of major scien-
training and experience. An aptitude for figures or the ability to use
tific and technological projects, from the design of the data to be
a computer isn’t enough. We need to be certain that policy deci-
captured to its analysis and then to the presentation of results. To
sions are anchored on a solid quantitative base.
many, statistics is simply a branch of mathematics that concerns
When practitioners are not regarded as professionals, anyone
itself with data and probability, but I define statistics as “the science
can call themselves a statistician, regardless of training and experi-
of managing uncertainty.”
ence. A typical professionally accredited statistician will have many
An extraordinary catalogue of misadventures—some hilarious,
years of experience as a professional statistician in addition to at
some disastrous—have resulted from failure to deal with statisti-
least one degree in statistics.
cal issues with due care (see www.statsoc.org.au). For example, an
The several hundred members of the Statistical Society of
Australian doctor who had made more than 17,000 Medicare
Australia realize, however, that statistics as a discipline and
claims in one year was scrutinized under the Health Insurance
statisticians as practitioners have image problems, typified by the
Commission Act for over-servicing. However, the investigative
following exchange 40 years ago between Prince Philip, Duke of
procedure failed in court because the correct sampling procedure
Edinburgh, and the late Oliver Lancaster, then professor of math-
wasn’t followed, possibly due to its complexity.
ematical statistics at Sydney University:
Before the space shuttle Challenger exploded after launch in
1986, informal estimates by engineers and management put the
Prince to Professor (quoting from Benjamin Disraeli): “There
chance of failure at between one in 100 and one in 100,000. Later,
are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
a proper statistical analysis of the data available pre-launch showed
Professor to Prince: “Figures fool when fools figure.”
that the actual risk had been one in eight.
Members of the Statistical Society of Australia want government
Whereas statements by financial institutions about probity and
departments and agencies responsible for major policy issues to
risk have to be authorized legally by properly qualified accountants
employ professionally accredited statisticians with oversight of the
and actuaries, statistical conclusions derived from major environ-
collection, analysis, and interpretation of data that underpin any
mental impact studies require no similar authorization. Yet, deci-
major policy decision. n
sions of huge community significance are made as a result of the
effect of airport noise on housing prices, or the degree of residual
Originally published in Australasian Science Magazine in April of
contamination in a major industrial site.
2004, this column is reprinted with permission.
MARCH 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 29
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