In the News
Signals Point to Return of El Niño, But Conclusions Far From Certain
The possibility that California‘s drought will conclude with an onslaught of El Niño-fueled weather will have to wait until time provides greater certainty to what future forecasts may bring.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is tracking modeling data that shows an increased likelihood for an El Niño event later this year. Characterized by above normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacifi c Ocean, El Niño can lead to extremely wet winters in many parts of California. Whether that is the case in 2014 is not a forgone conclusion. “There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become,” the Climate Prediction Center said May 8. “This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.” Far out in the Pacifi c, changing ocean water temperatures alternate between warmer than normal, cooler than normal and neutral, affecting the circulation of the atmosphere. The cycles last about one year or less and for the West Coast, it can mean large swaths of storm clouds funneled into areas desperate for water. “If El Niño returns, the American West and Southwest could see major relief next winter from the long-lasting, punishing drought,” said Bill Patzert, clima- tologist with National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
In 1997-1998, El Niño-fueled storms slammed California, causing damage in excess of $1 billion. Fifteen years previous, El Niño storms caused more than $2 billion in damage.
Jeanine Jones, deputy drought manager with the California Department of
Water Resources, cautioned against reading too much into the early fi ndings, saying “because it’s one of their few predictors NOAA has for the Climate Prediction Center it does tend to be overhyped sometimes.” NOAA will issue an updated El Niño forecast in November. Even then, the question will be how much relief drought-stricken California can expect. A strong El Niño means Southern California tends to be wetter and the Pacifi c Northwest tends to be drier, Jones said. A weak to moderate El Niño means “there is very little predicative capability.” An important contributor to California’s water supply is the atmospheric rivers that carry moisture-laden storms which on average account for one-half of the winter precipitation. The warm, tropical storms barrel into the state loaded with water, sometimes stalling in areas where the rainfall is unleashed. “Those are really more of our ticket to water supply,” Jones said. ❖
– Gary Pitzer
Whe e We Are
June 4 Drought Briefi ng: The Challenges of Water Project Operations California Department of Water Resources and Water Education Foundation, cosponsors Sacramento, CA
June 12-14
Delta & Floodplain Ecology Institute Brian Brown, California Project WET Coordinator Stockton, CA
June 15-21 Forestry Institute for Teachers – Plumas Brian Brown, California Project WET Coordinator Meadow Valley, CA
June 18-20 Water Education Foundation Bay-Delta Tour Renée Cashmere, Tour Director Sacramento, CA
June 22-28 Forestry Institute for Teachers – Tuolumne Brian Brown, California Project WET Coordinator Sonora, CA
July 6-12
Forestry Institute for Teachers – Shasta Brian Brown, California Project WET Coordinator
Shingletown, CA July 28-30
Floodplain Ecology Institute Brian Brown, California Project WET Coordinator Chico, CA
Read our 2013 Annual Report May/June 2014 3
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