INDUSTRY I OPINION
However, the risk status of the projects here ranges from highly- likely to very-unlikely, in terms of actually being built or even moving to ground-breaking status ahead of 31 March 2014. However, the vast majority of the projects within this 2.4 GW fall within the ‘likely-to-go-ahead’ bracket, providing strong confidence in the ground-mount segment over the next 12 months.
Figures 7 and 8 now provide some additional colour on the composition of this 2.4 GW of capacity, by examining the MW breakdown by region and by size category. Figure 7 shows that just over one half of the 2.4 GW pipeline is still located in the South regions, with the South West dominant once again. Almost one-quarter of the pipeline demand is now located in the East of England. However, it is unclear if grid interconnections can be guaranteed for this level of solar PV activity, with limits on new
capacity (within certain timeframes) added to the grid being in place at the regional level.
Further issues may emerge in the East of England, where grid capacity limits may also hinder projects from being completed. Finally, Figure 8 shows the breakdown of the 2.4 GW large-scale pipeline by PV project size. Here, the level to which project developers have increased project sizes from the 5 MW FIT days of 2011 is startling.
Well over half of the 2.4 GW pipeline is from projects that are in excess of 10 MW. Furthermore, the pipeline is almost totally dominated by projects greater than the previous FIT limit. If economy-of-scale for solar PV farms is indeed a key element in delivering viable IRRs to investors, then the government’s decision at the end of 2012 to actively promote large-scale solar
Figure 6: Approximately three-quarters of the 3.1 GW large-scale UK solar PV project pipeline is comprised of projects at the planning stage
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www.solar-uk.net I Issue III 2013
Figure 7: Despite concerns over grid accessibility in Cornwall, the South West region accounts for almost half of the 2.4 GW large-scale PV pipeline
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