THE MARKET


focus from CACI


In Estates Gazette’s Spring Retail Supplement we talked about how the UK market is not down and out, despite the fact that retailers face flat trading and a move by consumers to online shopping. Building on this, writes Paul Langston (consulting partner, location strategy at CACI), there are “pots of gold” ready to be unearthed by successful retailers and investors still exist in the market. Indeed, CACI’s Retail Dimensions toolkit reveals that there is room for further retail developments, despite a backdrop of decline in many traditional high streets. When Trinity Leeds’ remaining shop-fits are complete the city


will reach number six in CACI’s annual Retail Footprint ranking. Leeds has also maintained its place in the elite list of A Grade retail destinations in our Centre Health scorecard. This shows that investment of an appropriate scale is essential to keep major destinations vibrant and exciting enough to compete against other retail centres and the internet. Our analysis reveals that there is much headroom for


developments in many other towns and cities, including Milton Keynes, Croydon, Crawley and Lancaster. But the retail investments of the future are unlikely to be limited to traditional city centres, as demonstrated by the recent opening of Whiteley shopping centre, between Portsmouth and Southampton. Whiteley may not be big but it enters our Retail Footprint ranking this year at 287. It has decent parking, modern units, a mix of convenience, comparison and leisure occupiers, and an edge-of-urban area location. Currently, access to major shopping parks like Whiteley is not spread evenly across the UK, and our analysis reveals


that, sites and planning permitting, opportunities for similar developments exist in the broad regional markets around the edge of London and the home counties, as well as in such cities as Glasgow, London and Sheffield. But do shoppers want centres like Trinity and Whiteley?


The resounding answer to this question, from the more than 100,000 consumer interviews we have carried out, is yes. The key findings are: ● Average spend per visit in healthier A and B grade grew


last year and is 60% higher than the average of C to E, which saw a slight decline. ● Flagship schemes are seeing increasing evidence of offline spend consolidation. ● Average spend in major shopping parks is 60% higher than


in town shopping centres. ● These non-traditional locations are playing an increasing


role in the omni-channel retail landscape and pose a challenge to planners seeking to defend the role of the high street. ● Those people who spend on catering during their shopping trips spend 48% more on shopping than non-diners, with their level of retail spend growing three times faster than that of non-diners in the last year. ● More space will be allocated to leisure in the future. ● The role of centres is changing rapidly to one of


convenience and value shopping. Consumers are making informed choices about the way they


want to shop and, in the future, the only way that retailers and developers are going to grow is to follow this tide of change.


RETAIL FOOTPRINT RANKING 2013: TOP 10 COMPARISON RETAIL CENTRES 2013 comparison spend (£m)


Rank Centre name 1 2


3 Manchester 4 5 6


10


Birmingham Liverpool Leeds


7 Westfield London 8 9


London – West End Glasgow


Residential Tourist Worker Total £2,570 £1,276 £1,157 £1,207 £1,087 £916 £964


London – Knightsbridge £329 Nottingham Bluewater


£946 £1,043


RETAIL CENTRE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Opportunity Centre


rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9


10 SOURCE: CACI 8 Summer 2013 www.estatesgazette.com name


Milton Keynes Croydon


Colchester Birmingham Crawley Bradford Stevenage Lancaster


Major class


Major centres


Major centres Primary centres Major centres Major centres Major centres Major centres


£1,916 £417 £372 £378 £238 £135 £193 £212 £803 £119 £55


£148 £137 £108 £84 £93 £5


£34 £52 £2


£4,904 £1,795 £1,671 £1,553 £1,306 £1,202 £1,180 £1,166 £1,117 £1,101


Headroom index 305


Kingston Upon Thames Conurbation towns 157 Watford


Conurbation towns 192 Conurbation towns 156


153 147 136 135 129 128


REGIONAL MARKETS WITH SHOPPING PARK OPPORTUNITY


Outer London


0.5% 2.4%


Stoke


4.5% Sheffield


5.3% South West Midlands


Southampton and Portsmouth, before Whiteley


Liverpool


5.4% Glasgow


6% Hull and Lincoln


4.4% 6% 6.1%


% per current shopping park market share Northern Home Counties


Southampton and Portsmouth, after Whiteley


6.2%


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