major shakeup
of the present challenges, securing the required funds, revising fund channelling, establishing consistent guidelines, preserving entrepreneurial freedom to negotiate, and diversifying risks.
Regional transport operators are currently handing over one third of their turnover to infrastructure managers, accounting for two thirds of the turnover of these infrastructure managers. This puts regional rail and infrastructure side-by-side in the focus of the upcoming discussions.
Issues which need to be
resolved include: Regionalisation funds: as
stipulated in the Regionalisation Act, the federal government assigns public funds from its budget to the 16 states to enable them to order regional and commuter transport services. But the total available funding and its precise distribution between the states have been revised several times in discussions conducted behind closed doors. The last revision in November 2007 determined this for the 2008-2014 period (Figure 3). Current talks are being strongly influenced by substantial socio-economic trends, such as demographic and climate change, and the move away from fossil fuels. Market players will be forced to look for short to medium-
Electric locomoves Diesel locomoves Single-deck emus
Double-deck passenger coaches Single-deck passenger coaches Dmus
© SCI Verkehr GmbH 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Figure 2: Average age of German regional and commuter rail rolling stock in 2011. IRJ April 2013
DB Regio Competors
term solutions to reduce costs while continuing to offer
attractive transport services. Investment grants: the Municipal Transport Financing Act, which has been the principal source of funding for regional and urban public transport investment since 1971, was replaced by the Unbundling Act in 2007. Up to 2019, the federal government will assign ƒ1.3bn annually to the states, but from next year these funds will no longer be dedicated to transport, and will instead be available for any kind of investment. Before the end of this year, the federal government and the states are legally obliged to assess whether the total amount will cover all future investment needs. After 2019, public investment will be comprehensively reorganised. In the meantime, the implementation of urban and regional rail infrastructure projects is problematic, due to
a lack of planning certainty. Debt brake: in order to comply with the stipulations of the European Union’s (EU) Maastricht Treaty, the German constitution was amended in 2009 to reduce public debt. Public budgets at all levels have to be balanced without additional borrowing, which in some cases is likely to require drastic reduction. But we are still awaiting its impact, so it is difficult to say what the effect will be.
6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 © SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 3: Total volume of German regional and commuter rail regionalisation funds 1996-2014.
Fourth Railway Package: the EU aims to separate infrastructure management from transport operation to the greatest possible extent. However, a recent study by SCI Verkehr on behalf of the European Academy for Environmentally-Sensitive Transport (EVA) revealed that this separation does not necessarily lead to better
quality railways. The Railway Regulation Act, which will not come into force until sometime after national elections in September, is intended to define the competencies of the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA), responsible for regulating the telecommunications, postal, electricity, gas, and railway markets. However, it has caught the attention of a wide range of railway stakeholders prompting discussions about the opportunities and
limitations of railway
regulation. The current federal transport infrastructure plan, which dates back to 2003, will be completely revised and amended by 2015. Although the states have been asked to name their priority projects, their selection rests with the federal government. The plan will have to be passed by the federal parliament, but the implementation of the projects is linked to available public funds, which hampers precise forecasts of their effect on the market.
The future of regional passenger rail and infrastructure will determine the future of the entire German railway market. The diverging interests of the various stakeholders raise concerns that real debate on a fundamental redesign will be side-lined in favour of simply cutting expenditure and a “business-as-usual” attitude. Instead, finding a new, sustainable financial framework to develop the market is crucial. From a functional point of view, this task is more extensive and complex than ever before - and at the same time it is of great political sensitivity. Providing certainty and orientation for all stakeholders is the main objective. IRJ
“The German Rail Market - Facts, Figures, Players, Trends”study is available from SCI Verkehr at:
www.sci.de
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