The Death Penalty in Japan


92%. Tis is the largest range (37 percentage points) in comparison to other sweeps, which is due to the lowest response rate (65%) measured by the 2009 survey.


In addition, it was established in the 2009 survey that males in the 20-29 age group were the most under-represented group in the sample, but also the group with most abolitionists. Table 1 (2009 survey by gender and age) shows this group is also the one with the largest interval (61 percentage points), with the true value of retentionists that could range from 34% to 95%.


Table 1: Confidence intervals for retentionists By year


Year 1967


1975 1980 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009


W1


83% 80% 81% 76% 70% 72% 68% 65%


P


71% 57% 62% 67% 74% 79% 81% 86%


LL


57% 45% 49% 49% 51% 56% 54% 54%


UL


77% 66% 71% 76% 83% 86% 88% 92%


UL–LL 20


21 22 27 32 30 34 38


Note: 1) Necessary information not available for the 1956 government survey to calculate confidence intervals. 2) LL: Lower limit, UL: Upper limit, W1


: Response rate (n/theoretical sample), and P: Proportion of retentionists (number of retentionists/n). 2009 government survey by gender and age Male W1 P LL UL UL–LL Female W1


20-29 47% 81% 34% 95% 61 30-39 47% 90% 40% 98% 58 40-49 52% 90% 45% 97% 52 50-59 61% 86% 49% 95% 46 60-69 71% 87% 59% 94% 35 70+ 74% 84% 58% 92% 34


P LL UL UL–LL


20-29 48% 84% 36% 96% 60 30-39 63% 87% 51% 95% 44 40-49 73% 87% 60% 94% 34 50-59 68% 86% 55% 94% 39 60-69 81% 86% 66% 92% 26 70+ 76% 80% 57% 89% 32


Response rates do matter. Tey matter because where response rates are low, they result in a wide confidence interval which reduces the reliability of the officially reported proportion of retentionists in the government surveys. Any analyses produced from the government survey should include the correction of the bias present in their sample, or at least the bias to be acknowledged, before presenting the results.


40


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