Chemicals and plastic Paper and pulp Leather Textile Aluminium Iron and steel
manufacturing sector by 2050 in G2 and BAU (tCO2
Figure 10: Energy-related CO2 /year)
Source: IEA (2009)
It is worth repeating that the necessary simplifications in the model (indeed, any model) result in simulated outcomes that may be quite different from reality, inasmuch as they are unable to take into account a variety of cause-effect chains unrelated to the assumed investment-growth-employment relationships. However, the optimistic results of the simulation are realistic, at least in magnitude. The existing global economic system, and especially its industrial component, has been built upon a base of under-priced fossil energy and other ecosystem services. This has enabled grossly wasteful production and consumption practices in many parts of the world. For several reasons, the price of energy is probably going to rise significantly in the future. This will induce everyone in the system to seek energy-conserving products and services. The ultimate effect will be to enable existing goods and services to
emissions per G2
0 BAU BAU2
Chemicals and plastic Paper and pulp Leather Textile Aluminium Iron and steel
Figure 11: Energy costs per manufacturing sector
by 2050 in G2 and BAU scenarios (US$/year) Source: IEA (2009)
G2
be produced with much less energy. Whether increased efficiency will fully compensate for higher costs (thus permitting the same amount of economic growth or more) remains to be seen in practice, but a double dividend potential may well exist and is illustrated in the G1 and G2 scenarios.
Recent analysis for the US provided an assessment of the economic impact of the climate-energy legislation (APA-ACELA) pending in the US, together with a version with enhanced energy efficiency features, as compared to the reference forecast BAU in the 2010 International Energy Outlook, published by the Energy Information Administration (US, DOE). It covers the period 2013- 2030. Its results tend to confirm that the results by the Millennium Institute reported here, especially as regards employment, are forecast accurately.