Agriculture

the production of ethanol and bio-diesel fuels are predominantly based on food commodity feed stocks such as corn, sugarcane, soy, canola, sunflower and palm oil. Despite growing ethical, environmental, and economic concerns surrounding the use of food staples for producing these biofuels, there is continued public- and private-sector interest in their development. No matter where these crops are grown, they will inevitably compete with food crops for land, water and nutrients. Figure 7 shows food prices tracking fuel prices. At present, this alignment of food and energy prices may primarily result from the cost of fossil fuels used as an input in food production. But it is expected that the pattern will become more marked because of the competition for food crops that are used to produce biofuels.

As a result, significant efforts are being made to develop technologies for second-generation biofuels, which can be produced from non-food biomass feedstock such as ligno- cellulosic wood and crop-residue wastes, perennially- grown switch grass and algae. Such technologies can potentially enable the production of biofuels to be scaled up with fewer adverse impacts on global food security. However, much more analysis is needed regarding the degree to which converting large quantities of cellulosic feedstock to biofuels would displace the recycling of organic nutrients from crop residues to arable land, pastures and forests (Balgopal et al. 2010).

Limited arable land and scarce water Approximately 1.56 billion hectares or 12 per cent of the earth’s total land surface area is arable land being used to produce crops for human and livestock consumption.

fig6.pdf 1 1/11/11 10:46 AM

Urban and rural population in less developed regions (billion) 4

C C M Y CM MY CY CMY CMY K 1 Estimates Projections 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Figur e 6: Urban and rural population trends in

developing regions Source: Nordpil, Ahlenius (2009); United Nations Population Division (2007); World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database, Available at: http://esa. un.org/unup/index.asp?panel=1

0 Jan-00 Jan-02 Urban K 100 Maize Wheat Rice 150 2 3 M Rural Y CM MY CY 200 Oil 300 300 450

In addition, some 3.4 billion hectares of pasture and woodland are now used for livestock production (Bruinsma 2009). The agricultural productivity of the available arable land is extremely varied. Crop yields in developed countries are generally far greater than the yields realised in most developing countries. These productivity differences result from different levels of natural soil fertility; fertiliser, pesticide and herbicide use; quality of cultivated plant species and seeds; availability and access to water; farmers’ education and access to information, credit and risk insurance and the degree of agricultural mechanisation.

Only limited additional land can be readily brought into agricultural production through conversion or rehabilitation. Moreover, the often highly fertile arable land surrounding cities is rapidly being converted into residential and commercial development as urbanisation gathers pace (Pauchard et al. 2006). Expanding cultivated areas is no longer the obvious way to increase production (exceptions are parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America where some savanna areas could be brought into production). Furthermore, over-grazing by livestock and extended drought conditions are accelerating the desertification of fragile arid and semi-arid regions. Agriculture has contributed to land degradation in all regions, but is most severe in input-intensive production systems (notably in East Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe). Agricultural activities account for around 35 per cent of severely degraded land worldwide (Marcoux 1998). Given the high risk of further deforestation, developing countries will need to meet food-supply gaps by simultaneously increasing productivity and

1_102_commodityvsoil.pdf 2008-11-13 11:42:32

Food prices (index) 400

Crude oil price (index) 600

Jan-04

Index reference: 100=1998-2000 Jan-06

Figur e 7: Trends in food commodity prices,

compared with trends in crude oil prices Source: Nordpil, Ahlenius (2009); Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (2008). International commodity prices., Available at: http://www.fao.org/es/esc/prices, IMF 2008. IMF Primary Commodity Prices, monthly data for 8 price indices and 49 actual price series, 1980 – current, Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.asp

0 Oct-08

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