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Towards a green economy Scenario
NCAR with developing-country investments Agricultural research Irrigation expansion Irrigation efficiency
Rural roads (area expansion) Rural roads (yield increase) Total
CSIRO with developing-country investments Agricultural research Irrigation expansion Irrigation efficiency
Rural roads (area expansion) Rural roads (yield increase) Total
South Asia
172 344 999 8 9
1,531
185 344
1,006 16 13
1,565
East Asia and the Pacific
151 15
686 73 9
934
172 1
648 147 9
977
Europe and Central Asia
84 6
99 0
10 198
110 1
101 0
11 222
Latin America and the
Caribbean
426 31
129 573 3
1,162
392 30
128 763 3
1,315
Middle East and North Africa
169 –26 59 37 1
241
190 –22 58 44 1
271 fertilisation effect.
Sub-Saharan Africa
314 537 187
1,980 35
3,053
326 529 186
1,911 36
2,987
Table 6: Incremental annual agricultural investment figures by region needed to counteract climate- change impacts on child malnutrition17 Note: These results are based on crop model yield changes that do not include the CO2
Source: Nelson et al. (2009)
enable these countries to purchase technology and other critical inputs for their economies.
Climate adaptation and mitigation benefits, and ecosystem services Making agriculture more resilient to drought, heavy rainfall events, and temperature changes is closely linked to building greater farm biodiversity and improved soil organic matter. Practices that enhance biodiversity allow farms to mimic natural ecological processes, enabling them to better respond to change and reduce risk. The use of intra and inter-species diversity serves as an insurance against future environmental changes by increasing the system’s adaptive capabilities (Ensor 2009). Improved soil organic matter from the use of green manures, mulching, and recycling of crop residues and animal manure increases the water holding capacity of soils and their ability to absorb water during torrential rains.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimates that an additional US$ 7.1-7.3 billion per year are needed in agricultural investments to offset the negative impact of climate change on nutrition for children by 2050 (Table 6). The International Food Policy Research Institute recommended investments were needed primarily for basic infrastructure such as rural roads in Africa and expanded irrigation, and
17. Note: 1) NCAR: The National Center for Atmospheric Research (US); 2) CSIRO: The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia).
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for agricultural research (Nelson et al. 2009). However, assessments of green investment options that would include agro-ecological soil fertility enhancement; water-use efficiency improvements for rain-fed farming; breeding for drought and flood tolerance; integrated pest management; and post harvest handling infrastructures, still remain to be done.
The IPCC estimates that the global technical mitigation potential from agriculture by 2030 is approximately 5,500-6,000 Mt CO2
Developing countries
1,316 907
2,158 2,671 66
7,118
1,373 882
2,128 2,881 74
7,338
-eq/yr (Smith et al. 2007). Soil carbon
sequestration would be the mechanism responsible for most of this mitigation, contributing 89 per cent of the technical potential. Therefore, agriculture has the potential to significantly reduce its GHG emissions, and possibly to function as a net carbon sink within the next 50 years. The most important opportunity for GHG mitigation is the application of carbon-rich organic matter (humus) into the soil. This would significantly reduce the need for fossil fuel-based and energy- intensive mineral fertilisers and be a cost-effective means of sequestering atmospheric carbon. Further GHG mitigation gains could be achieved by improving yields on currently farmed lands and reducing deforestation pressures and by adopting no/low tillage practices that reduce fuel usage (Bellarby et al. 2008; ITC andFiBL 2007; Ziesemer 2007).
The environmental services provided by greening farms are substantial. The Rodale Institute, for example, has