Conclusion and recommendations

Sumatran orangutan habitat is threatened by deforestation, with most pressure being exerted on carbon-rich peatland ar- eas. Under current forest loss rates, one of the three remaining large peat areas (Tripa) in Aceh will have completely lost its undisturbed forest by 2015-2016. Forest loss on peat and non- peat is accompanied by large losses to biodiversity in those areas. Under a business-as-usual scenario orangutans in Tripa would very likely be locally extinct within five years, whereas in 1990 there were likely more than 1,000 orangutans in the Tripa area. In the Leuser Ecosystem approximately 79% of deforestation in peatlands during 1985-2007 was driven by expansion of oil palm plantations. In forest on non-peatlands this percentage is much lower (19%) and the majority of deforestation was driven by a combination of mixed-agroforestry, rubber and candlenut. Tis forest loss has a negative impact on the ecosystem services that forests provide.

One of the main negative impacts of the transition from undis- turbed forest to other land uses is a reduction in carbon stocks and the accompanying emissions. Such emissions have placed Indo- nesia as the third highest carbon emitting country behind China and the US. Tis study shows that valuing forests for the carbon they contain and other ecosystem services can be competitive to the value of other land uses. At present, the only value for ecosys- tem services in Indonesia that is close to being realized is that for REDD projects. Te range of values (USD 7,420-22,094 /ha for a 25-year period) for avoided CO2

emissions from deforestation on

peatlands are almost completely higher than that of the most prof- itable other land use, that of oil palm (USD 7,832 US /ha over a 25-year period). In one of the main strongholds of the Sumatran orangutan, the Leuser Ecosystem, 79% of deforestation on peat- lands is driven by the expansion of oil palm plantations and 21% by land uses that are less profitable. In these same peatlands 30% of orangutans occur, thus conservation through a REDD scheme could simultaneously lead to the conservation of significant car- bon stocks and a large number of orangutans.

On non-peatlands, REDD schemes under current market prices would value the forest (USD 3,711-11,185 /ha for a 25-year period) higher than all land uses except oil palm for which the REDD value range would show considerable overlap with the value of oil palm (USD 7,832 /ha for a 25-year period). Because most deforestation (81%) on non-peatland areas, which is where 70% of the total orangutan numbers occur, was not driven by oil palm expansion, REDD has a great potential for orangutan habitat conservation on non-peatland as well. Adding potential payments for other ecosystem services to REDD would make this multiple-benefit approach even more competitive.

Nevertheless, it is also important to ensure that Sumatran or- angutan habitat conservation is not compromising the growing

demand for agricultural products and the economic growth tied to this. Because remaining orangutan habitat is relatively small (8,641km2

) redirecting agricultural development away from or-

angutan habitat towards low current use value land is possible in terms of the available low current use value land in Aceh and North Sumatra (WWF 2010). In order to achieve such a tran- sition of agriculture away from orangutan habitat towards low current use value lands a clear framework will need to be devel- oped that can resolve many issues such as land tenure, how to deal with transferring agricultural development from one area to another and funding.

In addition to redirecting agricultural expansion there is a clear need to make existing agriculture as intensive as possible to supply a growing demand without developing new agricul- tural lands at the expense of deforestation. Certainly in the oil palm industry there are ample opportunities to increase yields through better management practices.

Tus the development of a Green Economy can lead to a win- win situation where orangutan habitat is conserved, ecosystem services maintained and economic growth continued.

Indonesia has made the first important steps towards realiz- ing a future in which conservation and economic growth can work in synergy. Te government emerged as a political world leader in tackling climate change when its president commit- ted in 2009 to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2020, and up to 41% with external aid. Following this commitment, the governments of Norway and Indone- sia signed a USD 1 billion agreement to conserve Indonesia’s forests and peatlands. Included in this deal is a pledged two- year moratorium on all new concessions for the conversion of peat and natural forests. Although promising, the value of the suspension for reductions in carbon emissions and biodiver- sity conservation depends on whether it will go further than a business-as-usual scenario. For the moratorium to achieve this, it is crucial that natural forests and peat are defined in such a way that they apply to all areas with forests, and not those limited to the Forest Estate (See Appendix 1), and to peat of all depths, and not only those deeper than 3m. Forest should also be defined in an operational way so that it can be mapped easily (Kompas 2011, Wich et al. 2011).

At the same time, Indonesia still faces many hurdles that could undermine the transition to a Green Economy and efforts to facilitate this transition should focus on improving spatial plan- ning processes and regulations, ineffective forest management units, weak management of forest land, land tenure inconsisten- cies, weak legal frameworks and the lack of firm national and international law enforcement.

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