Carbon Disclosure Project 2011
In addition, global oil demand is projected to grow 1% per year on average from 85 mb/d in 2008 to 105 mb/d in 2030 – a growth of twice Saudi Arabia’s 2008 production potential. The non- OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) regions account for all the demand growth. Together, China and India were using about 11 mb/d in 2008; by 2030 this figure is expected to grow to 23 mb/d.8
This level of oil
consumption means that these two countries would consume the equivalent of the entire U.S. strategic oil reserve of 727 million barrels9 about 31 days (Figure 2).
in
Consuming 23 million barrels of oil a day is equivalent to getting through the entire U.S. strategic oil reserves in 31 days.
The situation is similar with metals, particularly base metals. In both China and India, demand for automobiles will likely increase (Figure 3) driven by the increasing size of the middle class. Automobiles and more general development and construction are expected to drive the longer-term demand for steel, aluminium, copper and platinum.10
With the increase in competition for oil and natural resources there will likely be additional price volatility as the demand will increasingly be supplied by less politically stable countries.10
These resource constraints provide us with a once in an era opportunity to invest in technology that can produce innovative breakthroughs. These innovations can be scaled across industry sectors to build a long term sustainable economy, while maintaining or increasing our quality of life, in the shortest possible time.
Figure 2: Predicted increase in demand for oil from India and China combined Million barrels per day
25 20 15 10 5 0
2008
2030 Figure 3: Emerging economies have room to grow
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Infrastructure Comparison 21,862 14,157 USA CHINA 1,080 Motorways
180 120 60 0
162 242 Roads 780 54 Railways Persons per Automobile 152
59 12 China India 11 Indonesia Mexico Brazil 5
South Korea
Adapted from ERM’s report The New Politics of Natural Resources10
8. International Energy Agency, 2009. World Energy Outlook. Available from
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2009/weo2009.pdf Last accessed June 16th, 2011.
9. US Dept Energy. Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Quick Facts and Frequently Asked Questions. Available from
http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/spr/spr-facts.html Last accessed June 16th, 2011.
10. Cattaneo, B. 2009. The New Politics of Natural Resources . ERM. Available from
http://www.above-groundrisk.com/web_documents/new_politics_of_natural_resources.pdf Last accessed June 16th, 2011.
3.4 EU 1.8 USA
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