Market Analysis Spring 2011
Prime Central London
Figure 11 Central London - sales appraisals & new instructions Jan 2009 = 100
Central London - Sales Appraisals & New Instructions Jan2009 = 100
100 150 200 250 300
100 150 200 250 300
50 0
50 0
100 150 200 250 300
Figure 12 Central London - prospective new buyers Jan 2009 = 100
50 0
100 120 140 160 180 200
20 40 60 80
0
100 120 140 160 180 200
20 40 60 80
0
100 120 140 160 180 200
20 40 60 80
0
Figure 13 Central London - number of foreign buyers
INDIA CHINA
SAUDI UAE
INDIA CHINA
SAUDI UAE
RUSSIA ITALY
INDIA CHINA
GERMANY SPAIN
SAUDI UAE
AUS AUS
RUSSIA ITALY
GERMANY SPAIN
RUSSIA ITALY
FRANCE FRANCE
GERMANY SPAIN
AUS
Central London -Time to Sell (WEEKS) Central London -Time to Sell (WEEKS)
10.0 15.0
10.0 15.0
5.05.0
10.0 15.0
FRANCE
Central London - Prospective new Buyers Jan2009 = 100
Central London - Prospective new Buyers Jan2009 = 100
Sales Appraisals New Instructions to Sell
Central London - Sales Appraisals & New Instructions Jan2009 = 100
Central London - Sales Appraisals & New Instructions Jan2009 = 100
Sales Appraisals Sales Appraisals New Instructions to Sell New Instructions to Sell
Central London - Prospective new Buyers Jan2009 = 100
After a slow start to the New Year the prime central London property market is gathering momentum. Many commentators refer to a rush in the market to beat April’s stamp duty rise for properties over £1m, however, in London’s prime market an extra percentage point in stamp duty makes little difference in the decision- making process. Demand for quality property is the driving force of the market and nearly all central London offices are reporting a particular shortage of properties due to the lack of replacement stock for the properties sold in the final two months of 2010. Indeed, the number of sales appraisals and instructions to sell in December were down 25% and 40% respectively compared to December 2009. The number of sales instructions fell by more than three quarters (76%) between the peak in September and December 2010. However, instructions more than tripled in January (a 227% rise) and provided a welcome injection of property into the market. (Figure 11)
£800k £820k £840k £860k £880k £900k £920k £940k £960k £980k
£800k £820k £840k £860k £880k £900k £920k £940k £960k £980k
£800k £820k £840k £860k £880k £900k £920k £940k £960k £980k
100 120 140
100 120 140
20 40 60 80
20 40 60 80
100 150 200
50
As well as fresh stock hitting the market, more positive news for offices in central London is that City workers are returning to the property fold after a two- year hiatus. Bonus season has provided many with the means to buy prime property and initial signs are that those working at the coalface of international finance are confident about the future of the market and
100 150 200
50 Central London -Time to Sell (WEEKS) Market Analysis Spring 2011
100 150 200
50
100 120 140
20 40 60 80
are happy to invest in property. These buyers, combined with others, boosted demand in January – double the number of registrations compared to December – after the traditional Christmas drop and a flat four months to November.
Central London Average Monthly Sale Price Central London Average Monthly Sale Price Central London Average Monthly Sale Price
This surge in demand, combined with the shortage of property, has created a sub-market in central London in which quality property is being traded so quickly that in many cases properties don’t make it onto the open market by the time offers above the asking price have been made and accepted. (Figure 12)
Central London - Sales Agreed Jan2009 = 100
Central London - Sales Agreed Jan2009 = 100
Central London - Sales Agreed Jan2009 = 100
Country - Prospective New Buyers Jan2009 = 100
Country - Prospective New Buyers Jan2009 = 100
Country - Prospective New Buyers Jan2009 = 100
The number of foreign buyers in central London has fallen by more than half (56%) over the last four months as the economic conditions which made London property such an attractive investment option subsided. However, foreign buyers still make up a large proportion of central London’s new buyer registrations. Buyers from France and Italy dominate the split of foreign investors (25% and 22% respectively) but the largest proportional rise is among investors from the Middle East. Unrest in the region has caused the proportion of investors to grow from 12% to 20% as Arabian investors look for the security of central London’s bricks and mortar. Buyers from China and Russia make up 13% and 12% respectively. (Figure 13)
The rush of investors entering the market during the first half of last year culminated in the average time taken to sell properties in central London falling to its lowest point (four
9
£200k £250k £300k £350k £400k £450k
£200k £250k £300k £350k £400k £450k
£200k £250k £300k £350k £400k £450k
100 150 200 250 300 350
100 150 200 250 300 350
50 0
100 150 200 250 300 350
50 0
50 0
100 120 140 160 180
100 120 140 160 180
20 40 60 80
20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180
20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
100 120 140 160
20 40 60 80
40 60 80
100 120 140 160
20 40 60 80
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09
Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-0
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 J
Jan-09 Ma
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09
Jan-09 Mar-09 May
Jan-09
Jan-09 Mar-09 M
Jan-0
Price (£)
Price (£) Price (£)
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
Price (£)
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
Price (£) Price (£)
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
Jan-10 Feb-10
Jan-10
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16