BUSINESSANALYSIS
In the Sunbelt, PV ‘’is still perceived as an expensive energy source mostly suitable for off-grid installations of small and medium size,’’ mentions the report. ‘’As a matter of fact, PV can already compete with other commonly used power generation technologies such as diesel generators.’’
Sunbelt potential 22
The study analyses the unlocked potential in 66 out of the 148 countries in the Sunbelt, representing over 5 billion inhabitants and 95% of the region’s total population. Despite the exceptional solar irradiation registered in these countries, at present they represent only 9 percent of the global installed PV capacity. At the same time, countries of the Sunbelt today represent about 75 percent of the world population and 40 percent of the global electricity demand. About 80 percent of the forecasted growth of the world electricity demand in the coming 20 years will originate from fast developing economies in this region. The study shows that the PV potential of
Sunbelt strategies
India & China are both significant players in PV manufacturing in the Sunbelt region, with China dominating by far in terms of capacity, while India has the longer track record. But the installed base is still relatively modest in both countries and policies to spur installation are still under implementation (India) or under discussion (China). South East Asia does have some manufacturing capacity and a number of countries are at the verge of implementing promising support policies. Also, a substantial number of projects are in the pipeline and PV growth seems imminent.
The same is not true for Latin America, where almost no local industry base exists (with the exception of Mexico) and only some countries are contemplating significant support. Here, PV has gained some ground mostly as an off-grid / electrification opportunity, not yet as a part of the mainstream power mix. In the Mediterranean & Northern African region, the solar potential is only beginning to be tapped into. PV still needs to be positioned much more strongly in this process which is driven by local policy makers and development banks. From a PV potential perspective, this figure highlights the significance of the selected focal regions and offers a comparison of some key indicators across all regions. The specific trends opportunities and challenges in focus regions are discussed in more detail in the coming sections.
the Sunbelt countries could range, depending on the scenario(base, advanced and paradigm shift), from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58 percent of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then. Prices of PV systems by 2030 are expected to decrease by up to 66 percent compared to their current levels.
PV electricity, already competitive today with some peak generation technologies in a number of countries, would see its generation costs dropping to a range of 6 to 12 €c / kWh by 2020, making it highly competitive with all peak generation technologies, and as low as 4 to 8 €c/kWh in 2030, making it also widely competitive with most mid-load generation technologies.
PV will therefore represent a highly competitive alternative for new generation capacity as well as a replacement for existing ones. As the study concludes, solar power would also power development in the Sunbelt, providing reliable energy supplies with low operational cost to industries today starved for electricity. It would reduce those countries’ dependence on imported energy and safeguard against spikes in fuel prices.
© 2010 Angel Business Communications. Permission required.
www.solar-pv-management.com Issue IX 2010
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