reference to oil depletion and frequently rely
on optimistic oil price assumptions, which
Sorrell says are unjustified. Further oil price
spikes could tip the economy into recession
again, sapping efforts to mitigate climate
change of political will and financial resources.
Peak oil could also hamper attempts to mit-
igate climate change by creating a strong
incentive to exploit vast deposits of carbon
intensive non-conventional oils – even though
they are unlikely to fill the gap in time.
The report comes amid a growing consensus
that the oil supply will fail to meet demand far
sooner than 2020 for ‘above-ground’ reasons.
Both the IEA and Christophe de Margerie,
chief executive of Total, have warned of a sup-
ply crunch in the next few years as demand
recovers, because of shrinking investment in
new production capacity following the col-
lapse of the oil price. Bankers Morgan Stanley
recently predicted that tightening supply will
push oil price back up to $105 per barrel by
2012, while analysts Douglas-Westwood have
noted that an oil price of more than $80/bbl
sends the US into recession.
The UKERC report has been broadly
welcomed by depletion experts, who urged
the Government to act on it. Christopher
Patey, chairman of the Oil Depletion Analysis
Centre, and a former executive with Mobil,
said: “this excellent report exposes the British
Government’s position on peak oil for what it
really is – obstinate denial in the face of the
growing evidence, and a reckless gamble on all
our futures”.
Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK
Industry Taskforce on peak Oil and Energy
Security, said: “Having rejected the concerns
of a cross-section of British industry about a
peak in global oil production in the next
decade, hopefully the Government will listen
to the concerns of the country’s premier ener-
gy research establishment.”
“This is the right report at the right time”,
said Bernie Bulkin, energy and transport com-
missioner at the Sustainable Development
Commission and former chief scientist for BP,
who introduced the report at its launch. “The
Government should look at how we can run
our economy effectively and efficiently with-
The Government needs to start planning for oil depletion because it will mean major changes to out oil,” he said in an interview. “It means
infrastructure, investment and lifestyles, according to Steven Sorrell, the report’s lead author
electrification of road transport, and then
making electricity zero carbon.”
sive and difficult to produce and unlikely to haven’t demonstrated it in the report, but I A Department of Energy and Climate
expand anything by anything like that much. think it’s likely that conventional peak oil will Change spokeswoman said: “Government
One of the most optimistic industry forecasts turn out to be peak oil full stop.” met with UKERC in July to discuss their ini-
for tar sands production, for instance, from As the UN climate talks in Bangkok tial findings – we’re interested in their report
energy consultancy IHS CERA, shows output reached their climax last month – the penulti- and will assess their conclusions closely.”
reaching 6.3mb/d by 2035. “But by then we’ll mate round before the crucial Copenhagen
need to add around ten times that much capac- summit in December – the UKERC warned David Strahan is the author of The Last Oil
ity without allowing for any growth in that running short of oil may actually be bad Shock. He is a trustee of the Oil Depletion
demand,” says Sorrell, “so it’s very hard to see for global warming. The report notes that cli- Analysis Centre and served on the Expert
non-conventionals riding to the rescue. We mate policy assessments generally make no Group of advisors to the UKERC report
S Sustainable Business 9❘ November/December 2009 2
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