CARBON REDUCTION
Peak oil
Conventional oil production could peak far sooner than policymakers realize – and the impact could hit the
world sooner than the worst effects of climate change, according to a new report. David Strahan considers
the UK Energy Research Centre’s findings and sounds out the views of depletion experts
WAKE-UP CALL
ON OIL
T
here is a “significant risk” that conven- future supply. Yet they concluded the informa- take seven times what was discovered in 2007.
tional oil production will peak before tion was good enough to assess the risk of “We’re unlikely to explore our way out of
2020, and forecasts that delay the event global oil depletion, and that the peak of con- this”, says Sorrell.
beyond 2030 are based on assumptions that ventional production was “likely” before 2030. The report also implicitly challenges the
are “at best optimistic and at worst implausi- The main reason is the relentless treadmill Government’s position on peak oil. In response
ble”. So says a major new report that puts the imposed on the industry by the falling output to petition last year, the Government insisted
excitement over recent ‘giant’ oil discoveries of most existing fields, as a result of falling there is enough oil for the “foreseeable future”,
in perspective and directly contradicts the reservoir pressures and a long-term decline in and that reserves will meet rising demand until
Government’s position. It also warns that fail- the size of the fields being discovered. The “at least 2030”. The Government also refuses to
ure to recognize the threat of peak oil could UKERC found that total production from conduct a risk assessment that peak oil might
undermine efforts to combat climate change. existing fields is declining at 4% or more each come before 2020, despite maintaining a com-
The report, entitled Global Oil Depletion: year, meaning the world has to add three mil- prehensive risk assessment and rapid response
An Assessment of the Evidence for a Near- lion barrels of daily production capacity annu- network for an outbreak of smallpox, which it
Term Peak in Global Oil Production, comes ally just to stand still, equivalent to developing admits has already been eradicated.
from the UK Energy Research Centre, an a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will But the UKERC concludes that the risk of
independent group funded by the Research present “a major challenge, even if ‘above- a conventional peak before 2020 is significant
Councils, whose mission is to resolve con- and, given the long lead times needed to devel-
tentious technical issues and deliver clear op alternatives, requires serious considera-
guidance for policymakers. This report is sig-
nificant because it is the first dispassionate
academic attempt to reconcile the highly
polarised peak oil debate, yet its conclusions
‘
The world has to add three
tion.“If you don’t even recognize the problem
million barrels of daily
you will inevitably be unprepared,” says
production capacity annually to
Sorrell. “The Government needs to wake up
stand still, equal to a new
to oil depletion and start planning, because it’s
chime with a growing number of recent fore- going to mean major changes to infrastructure,
casts that warn of an early peak in production.
“This is an important conclusion”, says
Steven Sorrell, of Sussex University’s Science
’
Saudi Arabia every three years investment and lifestyles.”
The Government bases its view on the work
ground’ conditions are favourable”, says the of the International Energy Agency, which
Policy Research Unit, and lead author of the report. Once the economy comes out of reces- forecasts conventional oil will peak in 2020,
report, “because the worst impacts of oil sion, satisfying demand growth would usually but which argues that rising output from non-
depletion could come sooner than the worst require another one million barrels of daily conventional sources such as the Canadian tar
impacts of climate change. Both are important, production capacity each year. sands will push the overall production peak
but depletion has been largely ignored by The report also puts the breathless report- out to “around 2030”. The UKERC report
policymakers”. ing of recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico does not address the potential for non-con-
The UKERC set out to assess the evidence and offshore Brazil into a more sober context. ventional oil, but the numbers in the report
that conventional oil production will be limit- BG’s Guara field discovered last month, for show how unlikely it is that they will defer the
ed by physical depletion of the geological instance, contains two billion barrels of recov- peak for long, because of the sheer size of the
resource, as opposed to ‘above-ground’ erable oil and was lauded as a ‘supergiant’, hole left by conventional depletion.
constraints such as a lack of investment or prompting some pundits to claim such finds The UKERC report shows that two thirds
resource nationalism, before 2030. After would banish peak oil for decades. However, of current oil production capacity – 60 million
reviewing the data, it found there were large the UKERC argues that each additional one barrels per day – must be replaced by 2030
uncertainties, and that peak oil forecasting billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a before allowing for demand growth. By con-
techniques were often too pessimistic about week. To postpone the peak by a year would trast, non-conventional resources are expen-
28 November/December 2009 ❘ Sustainable Business
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