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US-RUSSIA MISSILE SAGA: WHAT NEXT?
FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL MEDVEDEV-OBAMA PACT
ALEXANDER PIKAYEV
by trying to play one friend (Washington) against
GEORGIY BOVT
be avoided. President Medvedev expressed him-
POLITICAL EXPERT another (Brussels). Bilateral relations can change GAZETA.RU self in his customarily cautious manner – “on the
very quickly, and it can take years – if not decades one hand, but on the other hand”. The West, how-
Barack Obama’s cancellation of the deployment – to win back respect. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently ever, understood him unequivocally – especially
of a missile defence system in Poland and the The Poles and central Europe won with Obama’s thanked US President Barack Obama for shelv- after he reproached Tehran for secretly building
Czech Republic represents a rare cases when a decision. The end of the US “divide and conquer” ing missile defence plans in a restrained but al- a second plant to enrich uranium. Iran, most like-
decision meets the interests of all players. Many strategy helped them avoid awkwardly being most friendly way, calling the move a “step in the ly, will not show the West any compliance, even
commentators raced to portray the Kremlin as accused of being the Bush administration’s Tro- right direction”. Official propaganda reacted given all the ultimatums. At best, the question
the biggest benefactor. Indeed, after the decision, jan horse inside the EU at a time when their best more imaginatively, suggesting that the Ameri- will be put off and delayed.
the silo-based interceptors will not be deployed hopes for development are EU subsidies. Now cans had “yielded”, and all thanks to our aggres- Meanwhile, the West, in its turn, will have no idea
dozens of miles from Russian. And there is no they have a better environment and greater siveness now that we have got off our knees and of whether Moscow intends to support sanctions
longer the threat of them being transformed into motivation to build their European identity. learnt to be sternly. against Iran, even if Moscow meant and means
launch pads for surface-to-surface medium- The missile defence drama is not over. Warsaw A majority of analysts close to the Kremlin have only to exacerbate the anti-nuclear rhetoric vis-
range ballistic missiles. Some people are even wants “compensation”, including deployment of made it fairly clear that as far as they are con- à-vis Tehran.
expressing concern that such a big decision US troops on its territory. With other countries, cerned the Russians don’t owe the Americans President Medvedev is now in a difficult position.
might be interpreted as an indicator of US weak- it has launched a campaign against withdrawal anything. The Russians especially shouldn’t give Either it’s hard for him not to keep his word
ness and provoke a more belligerent policy from of US tactical nuclear weapons from Europe. It up anything in Iran. Only two weeks ago the (which the world regards as binding), or it will
Russia. is unlikely these efforts would improve security: prime minister himself expressed the opinion be even harder for him to “sell” sanctions in Rus-
It would be wrong to deny the Russians have rea- the emergence of new troops near Russia’s bor- that Iran’s nuclear programme poses no military sia than it was for Obama to “sell” the shelving of
son to celebrate, but the decision was made on ders would not go unanswered. We can only hope threat – either to America or to Russia. Govern- the missile-defence system in America. Russian
primary consideration of American interests. the debate around the missile de- ment and military structures have hinted that public opinion as well as the political and mili-
Even in planning, the missile defence system hurt fence system in Europe is they intend to keep supplying “defensive weap- tary elite has grown used to the fact that Russia
transatlantic ties by placing enormous pressure enough to stop us repeating ons” to Tehran, such as the S-300 anti-aircraft will not cede one iota to the Americans on the
on US allies in Europe and provoking a new split dangerous mistakes.
-
missile complex. matter of Iran.
within the EU. Some observers say the lieuten- Medvedev is the first Russian These circumstances will have a huge restrain-
ants of George Bush decided to deploy the sys- Alexander Pikayev, Institute leader in recent memory to ing infl uence on the president – no less, and per-
tem – widely criticised for being based on un- for International Affairs and openly use the word “sanc- haps more, than the resistance everyone is writ-
proven technology – to drive a wedge between Global Economy, Moscow. tions” with respect to Iran. ing and talking about in their discussions of
old and new Europe in order to control the In the sense that sanctions Medvedev’s plans to modernise the country.
emerging EU giant. are, as a rule, not effective, Of course, purely theoretically, one could see the
Therefore, the Obama administration made an First published in but at times the simply can’t Iranian question in the larger context of a broad-
important conciliatory gesture to its European The Moscow Times scale improvement in Russian-American rela-
allies by abandoning the shield through bilat- tions. In particular, Prime Minister Vladimir
eral agreements and circumventing Nato, the Putin has outlined one of the possible directions
cornerstone of US global infl uence. Instead of such an improvement might take: it wouldn’t be
following the obsolete and self-damaging “di- bad if America were to give Russia access to the
vide and rule” strategy of the Bush era, Obama latest technologies. Only America has its own list
has promised a multilateral approach in mis- of what “wouldn’t be bad” in relation to Russia.
sile defence policy and will probably abandon And this isn’t just a matter of access to technol-
attempts to undermine the EU. Therefore, like ogy and useful mineral sources. In regard to Rus-
the Russians, European federalists in Paris, Ber- sia, it’s not just the size of the kickbacks and
lin and Brussels have good reason to open the bribes, or the bureaucratic red tape, but the cur-
champagne. In a rare coincidence, Nato’s lead- rent unpredictability of rules that depend on a
ership joined the celebrations. particular functionary, region or who knows
It is true that the Poles and, to a lesser extent, the what. For most Russian politicians and govern-
Czechs, deserve sympathy in their complaints ment functionaries, the current “reset” is just an-
about being mistreated by America. Why did other foreign policy tool. We are signing it for
Obama call the Czech prime minister at 1am to purely tactical reasons. We don’t much like the
inform him of the decision? Did the White House person we’re signing it with. We’ll gain some time
not know about the six-hour time difference? – and later we’ll remind him of all this.
-
On a more serious note, Warsaw and Prague re-
ceived an important lesson on the danger of Georgiy Bovt is an independent journalist and
building political leverage on a negative agenda
DRAWING BY DMITRY DIVIN
political observer
Letters to the Editor Questions?
Opinions?
World War II tember 1939. That Soviet move was dastardly and al community”.
I wish post-Soviet Russia well in all respects, and cowardly, and a baleful act of opportunistic ag- BRIC offers the possibility of instituting compe-
I take a great interest in the Russian stand at gression. tition and starting an economic and political We welcome letters to the editor, but reserve the
World Travel Market, in London, which exhibits The equally “bestial assault”, to quote Winston counterbalance to world dominance by one state. right to edit for length and clarity. Please send
the Russian regions and their tourist charms in Churchill, which Hitler launched in 1941 upon And, ironically, it favours the ideological, but un- your comments by email (editor.uk@rg.ru)
a warm and inviting fashion. We should try not the Soviet Union does not inspire in me, as an observed, preference of that single state – com- or fax (+44 207 504 3549), together with your
to rake up the past over tragic matters such as English son-in-law of Poland, quite the same petition! name, address and a contact telephone for
war; and I really do feel that the world has moved depths of sympathy which I might otherwise har- Forge ahead in making BRIC free of the World verifi cation. If you do not wish your name
on from WWll and its aftermath, which was the bour. Bank, the IMF and, ultimately, the WTO. The or email to be published, please indicate this
Soviet triumph in and occupation of eastern Eu- JAMES RJ LEWIS dream is real, but the way ahead will be precipi- clearly.
rope.
UK
tous and difficult. Once published, letters and guest columns
However, if we are going to rake up the past, as AMBRICOUR become the sole property of Rossiyskaya
you did in Dancing with Hitler on the edge of the Global outlook Gazeta. We do not publish anonymous let-
abyss (August issue) we must be objective. I was The US praises the virtues of open competition. City of Peter and Pushkin ters, letters advocating extremism or con-
sorry that the interview, while admitting the ex- But there is little competition in world markets. Thanks for your great presentation of St Peters- taining personal attacks, mass mailings or
istence of the secret protocol in the Molotov-Rib- Secret subsidies, tariffs, trade agreements, dis- burg. Very vivid. I’d like to see more regions pre- commercial appeals. All articles and letters
bentrop Pact, made no mention of the actual in- tribution systems, copyrights and patents, exclu- sented in the future, especially those further appearing on the opinion page do not nec-
vasion of eastern Poland by the Red Army just a sion clauses and sanctions always favour the US away from Russia’s capital. essarily refl ect the positions and views of
few days after the German Blitzkreig across the and its colonising associates – once named “the MARGARET STONE the editors of Rossiyskaya Gazeta and Rus-
western and southern borders of Poland in Sep- free world”, currently known as “the internation- LONDON sia Now.
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