Program’s budget. This may not be the case, espe-
cially if there is no increase in demand (in the form
of more proposals to the program). So, while I have
tried to caution against exuberance, I do not want to
discourage statisticians from applying for funding.
It is also appropriate to compare the results of
doubling the budget with other alternatives. If the
budget were to increase by 3% per year (i.e., keep-
ing up with inflation), the number of awards would
decrease by about one-sixth after eight years and by
increase the number of awards to 164 over eight
about one-fifth after 10 years. Being even more pes-
years (31.5% for the period, 4–5 awards per year)
simistic, if the budget were flat over that time peri-
or 148 over 10 years (18.2% for the period, 2–3
od, the number of awards would decrease by about
awards per year).
34% (eight years) and 40% (10 years).
So, while a doubling of the NSF budget over an
The bottom line: We should be optimistic, but
eight- to 10-year period sounds really great, the real
not euphoric.
effect is much more modest. And if the number of
To contact me, send an email to keith@
statistics faculty increases, the increasing number of
amstat.org. Questions or comments about this article,
NSF awards may not be able to keep pace.
as well as suggestions for future articles, are
I have assumed a doubling of the NSF budget
always welcome. n
would also result in a doubling of the Statistics
36 AmstAt News JUNE 2009
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