Funding Opportunities
Increased Funding for Science:
What Does It Mean for Statistics?
Keith Crank, AsA Assistant Director for Research and Graduate Education
I
n an address to the National Academy of
Sciences, President Barack Obama reiterated his
plans to double the budgets of the National
Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of
Energy’s (DOE) Office of Science, and the National
Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Originally, this doubling was to have occurred over
a 10-year period, but with flat funding in fiscal years
2007 and 2008, it will need to double in eight years
to meet that goal. (This may not happen. It is not
clear whether the current goal is to double these
budgets by 2016 or 2018.)
How will this affect statistics? As academic fund-
ing of statisticians by NIST and DOE’s Office of
Science is small or nonexistent, we will focus on
NSF. We start with what might be considered a typ-
ical grant. Consider an award to a principal investi-
gator (PI) with a graduate student (GS). The award
period, but if this is a person near the center of the
might look something like the following:
award distribution now, he or she should be mov-
ing into the upper tail of the distribution over the
next 8–10 years. Instead, we will consider someone
salary ($90,000 for
at this stage of his or her career 8–10 years from now
academic year)
$20,000
(i.e., someone who is probably currently in graduate
Fringe Benefits (30%) $ 6,000
school). What are some reasonable assumptions for
the changes in the award?
Gs stipend $20,000
For a new associate professor (0–1 years in rank),
Gs Tuition $15,000
the salary at the 75th percentile increased by an aver-
Travel $ 2,500
age of about 4% per year between 2003 and 2007.
For the 90th percentile, the increase was about 5%
supplies $ 500
per year, and for the 95th percentile, the increase
Indirect Costs (50%) $32,000 was about 6% per year. (As we are considering a
Total One-Year Award $96,000
typical NSF awardee, the salary is likely to be in the
upper tail of the distribution.) For my calculations,
I used a 5% increase in salary per year. For the other
items, it is more difficult to find data. I assumed the
If the Statistics Program currently has $12 mil-
fringe benefit rate and indirect cost rate would stay
lion to spend, it could make 125 grants like this one.
the same from year to year. I put in a 4% increase in
(I don’t know the current budget for the Statistics
GS stipend, an 8% increase in tuition, a 3% increase
Program. The figure used here is for illustration.)
in travel, and a 2% increase in supplies.
Now, what happens over an eight- or 10-year
This results in an award size of $146,000 after
period? We could follow this person and see what
eight years and $164,500 after 10 years. If the pro-
his or her grant might look like at the end of the
gram budget doubles to $24 million, this would
JUNE 2009 AmstAt News 35
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