'However, with all its complexity, weather continues to surprise'
variable and changeable, both in time and geographically.
In training we’re taught the basics of weather and how to read and interpret standard aviation forecasts and charts including METARs, TAFs, 214 and 215s, and ASXX and FSXX charts. However the age of the internet and mobile apps – such as the Met Office General Aviation app – has brought ready access to a wealth of weather information. The challenge is to make the best of the information available to build a ‘weather picture’ that makes the go/no-go decisions more straightforward and weather changes en-route less of a surprise.
While METARs and TAFS are an invaluable resource, and should always be consulted before a flight, they cannot convey the full weather story with all its complex variations in time and space. It’s our responsibility as pilots to build that picture, both through experience and by building an understanding of the weather and its many drivers. Watch the forecasts on TV, keep an eye on METARs and TAFs even when not flying, study radar and satellite imagery, talk to fellow pilots, share your weather experiences, read books and articles, attend courses and never, ever, be afraid to ask questions.
By consulting an array of information sources in the days leading up to a flight, pilots can achieve a greater understanding
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of how the weather is evolving, which reduces the chance of any surprises on the day, or worse – during the flight. To give another example of the importance of this context – a TAF can only inform of the chance of a challenge developing. A Prob 40 reading (a 40% probability of rain) may not be hugely useful – but, in contrast, consulting a rainfall map allows a pilot to see how showers are developing and have a greater understanding of how rain might impact a flight. A TAF can also be lacking when it comes to understanding the intensity of
Warm sector, lowering cloud and poor viz
showers and thunderstorms – and therefore how big the risk is. Again, looking at a rain radar can help build up a much more comprehensive picture. Having worked at the Met Office for more than 20 years I’m lucky to have been immersed in the weather and have built up a reasonable understanding of the drivers of it. However, with all its complexity it continues to surprise and I have made my fair share of mistakes and sometimes have been caught out by fast-changing situations, even when good forecast information has been available. Reflecting over the years the weather challenges of note can be grouped into: lowering cloud and reducing visibility, showers and thunderstorms, fog, wind and turbulence and performance. Lowering cloud – either due to an approaching front, but also due to moist air being forced up over hills. METARs and TAFS reflect weather at or near an airfield, but do not capture the risks that a nearby range of hills may bring. Taking off from Exeter for a short flight to Compton Abbas or Old Sarum, for example, it’s not unusual to hit lowering cloud and poor visibility just 20 miles to the east as you approach the Blackdown Hills, particularly in a warm sector, behind a warm from and ahead of a cold front. One tip I picked up from Sparky Imeson’s
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