MODELLING SCENARIOS


• We have used multipliers, provided by the ONS through the National Accounts, to provide a general overview of the impact of significant job losses within the aerospace sector, and the knock-on effects to the supply chain and the wider economy.


• If demand changed (negatively) so that the wages generated decreased by £10 million, the total decrease of compensation of employees across the economy would be £20.43 million. I.e. if wages decrease by £10 million the total impact on the economy would be a decrease in national wages by £20.43 million. If a major employer, for example Bae Systems, Airbus or Rolls Royce, reduced the size of its workforce in response to a drop in demand, the consequences would ripple through the entire UK economy.


• As an example, we shall consider the impact on jobs and the economy of a reduction in the UK’s aerospace workforce of 10,000 jobs. As a consequence of the sector’s broader economic footprint, a loss of 10,000 jobs in the UK’s aerospace sector would result in drop in economic output of £4.3 billion. If the reduction in employment was limited to 5,000 jobs, the consequence would be a drop in economic output of more than £2 billion.


26


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36