CONTRIBUTORS Will falling birth rates solve
the teacher shortage? Education Today hears from Naomi Howells, Managing Director of education recruitment agency Class People.
Current teacher shortages mean six in every 1,000 vacancies were left unfilled last year (National Foundation for Education Research), double the rate pre-COVID. Recruitment remains therefore one of the most significant challenges that leadership teams are facing. Interestingly, there have been emerging analyses of the impact of the falling birth rate and what this means for schools, with some hypothesising that staffing shortages will only be short-term. They propose that lower intakes will eventually align with teacher
recruitment, eliminating the teacher shortage. I’ve taken a deep dive into how true this is likely to be.
Considering the falling birth rate: between 2010-2015, the UK fertility rate fluctuated between 1.7 and 1.9, meaning that for every woman in the population, 1.7 children were being born. This was slightly lower than the ‘replacement birth rate’ which requires 2.1 children per woman to keep the population size stable, however, any shortfall was offset by immigration. These 2010-2015 children are in school now, aged anywhere between 10 and 15, experiencing the staff shortages first-hand.
Compare that to current fertility rates and births have dropped to 1.4 children being born per woman, with an expected continued decline as low as 1.3 or even 1.2 in the next decade. Some of this fall is attributed to rising costs against stagnant salaries, creating financial restrictions including buying a home and covering childcare costs. There are also more women in the workforce pursuing careers, and that’s driving a further decline. Excluding immigration and other factors, this decline in fertility will mean around 6.5 million fewer children are born in the UK in the next 30 years, and perhaps as many as 30,000 teaching positions no longer required (not adjusted for immigration).
Considering these stats against the argument that declining birth rates will ease the staff shortage and it seems valid at first glance. The reality is not so simple. First, teaching shortages are not evenly distributed by subject or geographic region, meaning that some places will still struggle to recruit. Second, it doesn’t account for the retention issue. In 2010, 70% of teachers were still teaching five years after qualifying, which had fallen to 67.5% of teachers by 2018: representative of an additional 1,200 teachers lost per year. This retention rate is only declining. Finally, the UK government is already accounting for at least some of this shortfall in its predictions. The government uses the Teacher Workforce Model (TWM), which predicts the projected number of teachers needed per age groups, considering factors like pupil projections and teacher inflow and outflow. The model then generates annual postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) targets, which are used to ensure there are enough future teachers, incorporating the birth rate fall. The only saving grace here is that the Office for National Statistics typically overestimate the birth rate to anticipate unexpected baby booms. What remains therefore is for leadership to continue focussing on retaining existing teachers while looking at innovative ways to meet future demand.
AI and online safety: how can we better protect children?
Journalist and editor Sal McKeown
takes a look at some worrying issues surrounding AI and children’s online safety in the wake of a new report by Qoria.
Children as young as eight are seeing images of naked people online, produced by AI ‘nudifying’ apps. A new report from Qoria, a global leader in child safety software, highlights the power of AI tools to create and transmit child sexual abuse materials (CSAM).
Qoria software safeguards 24 million children globally. Their survey gathered data from 447 school communities across the UK, and 603 schools in total. They collected responses from staff in education with a responsibility for safeguarding children. Of the schools surveyed, 91% expressed concern about the potential for adult predators to leverage AI for grooming purposes. This includes the use of sophisticated AI-powered tools such as: • Fake profile generators: Creating convincing online personas to befriend and build trust with children
• ‘Nudifying’ apps: Digitally removing clothing from images, often using existing photos of children found online, to create deeply disturbing and harmful content
According to The Internet Watch Foundation (IWF), there were 245 confirmed reports of AI-generated child sexual abuse material in 2024 compared with 51 in 2023. This is a rise of 380%. Experts say AI samples often look realistic, making it difficult to tell the real from the fake. Artificially generated CSAM involves images that are either partly or completely computer generated. Software can ‘nudify’ real images and replace the face of one child with another, creating a realistic image. In some cases, the real-life voices of children are also used, making them seem even more authentic. These fake images are used to blackmail children and force victims into further abuse. But it is not just adults who are using these tools. Qoria’s report reveals a trend of children sharing and requesting nude content. Over a third of schools reported such incidents. These fake images can be used to bully and distress children and young people, but are also being used to humiliate staff. The findings are a wake up call to government, tech industries, schools and families. Qoria’s Managing Director, Tim Levy recommends that schools focus on filtering and monitoring technologies. The report also calls for awareness sessions for adults. Many are unaware that very young children are being coached online to take sexually explicit videos of themselves in their own bedrooms and bathrooms while their parents are downstairs.
The government is introducing new measures. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the UK will be the first country in the world to make it illegal to possess, create or distribute AI tools designed to generate CSAM. The Crime and Policing Bill 2025 will outlaw the use of AI to produce child sexual abuse material and extend existing laws to criminalise materials that teach people how to use AI to generate such material. It will also criminalise moderators and administrators of websites that host CSAM and will give Border Force officers the power to search the digital devices of individuals arriving in the UK to check for child sexual abuse material.
The Qoria report is at:
https://qoria.com/global-insights-2024 26
www.education-today.co.uk May 2025
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