INDUSTRY COMMENT
The ‘copper crunch’ is real – should it change how you specify pipework?
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Guilhem Favard, supply chain manager at Brymec, examines the structural pressures reshaping copper supply and the specification case for stainless steel, outlining why a flexible, documented approach is now the mark of a rigorous specifier
he assumption that copper is the default answer for HVAC pipework has rarely been questioned. For decades, it has been embedded in specifications almost by reflex. But now in 2026, global supply
is tightening, prices are at record levels and the evidence points to a structural shift rather than a temporary spike. For M&E consultants and specifiers, the question is whether copper is still the right specification for every application, every time.
What is happening to copper supply?
Over the last decade, copper prices have almost doubled, with the metal recently trading at record levels of around £10,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange in Spring 2026 (equivalent to a little over $6 per pound). The International Energy Agency projects demand will outstrip supply by almost a third (c.30%) by 2035 if no action is taken. By 2040, construction alone will account for almost a quarter (22.9%) of global copper demand, driven by wiring, plumbing, HVAC and heat pump requirements, with grids, EVs, EV charging and data centres adding further pressure on top. As new data centres spring up, the systems that are being installed in them are projected to require around 500,000 tonnes of copper a year by 2030. The supply side is under serious strain. The catastrophic mudslide at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine in September last year cut output to less than half of pre-incident capacity, with full restart now potentially delayed until 2028. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine, responsible for around 4% of global supply. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are also restricting access to the sulphuric acid that refiners depend on. New mines, when they do come online, typically take 10 to 20 years from planning to first production.
The practical consequence for specifiers is that copper remains available, but at a cost
and lead time that is increasingly difficult to plan around. Prices keep moving and timelines keep stretching, which creates real risk for projects tendered months before procurement begins.
The specification case for stainless steel
Stainless steel has earned a considerably broader specification remit in recent years. Modern 316 grade stainless steel is fully suitable for potable water and vented heating systems, and can be specified in place of copper across a wide range of HVAC applications. The performance credentials are strong. Stainless steel offers excellent corrosion resistance and a service life of up to 50 years, making it well suited to coastal, underground and other demanding environments. It removes the need for repainting and reduces the inspection burden associated with corrosion protection. On larger diameter runs, particularly in exposed or accessible plant rooms, stainless also eliminates the copper theft risk that continues to affect some commercial and infrastructure projects.
Historically, the barrier has long been cost. Material prices per metre do sit higher than copper, though that gap has narrowed as copper has climbed. Modern press-fit systems are available for both materials, so installation hours and tooling broadly even out. The more significant advantage for specifiers is price stability. Stainless steel pricing has stayed reasonably steady, which makes whole-life cost modelling, tendering and budget sign-off considerably more predictable. When durability, security and reduced maintenance are factored in, the lifetime cost often favours stainless.
16 BUILDING SERVICES & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEER SEPTEMBER 2026 Read the latest at:
www.bsee.co.uk
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