| Decarbonising Japan
10 12 14
0 2 4 6 8
11.9 Bcf/d total 9.8 Bcf/d total 65%
Electric generation
20% 12%
2012 Industry 3%
Residential/ commercial Other
57%
25% 14% 2022
4%
Natural gas consumption in Japan by sector, 2012 and 2022, billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Data source: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, and FACTS Global Energy, Gas Databook 2023
generation by 2030. By the end of 2024, a total of 12.6 GW of nuclear generating capacity is expected to be in operation. An additional 11.4 GW of nuclear capacity will need to be restarted between 2025 and 2030 to meet the policy target.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) Policies target reducing the share of natural-gas- fired generation in Japan’s power generation from 34% in 2022 to 20% by 2030. The electric power and industrial sectors are the largest consumers of natural gas in Japan, accounting for 82% of all natural gas consumed there in 2022. Following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident and the subsequent shutdown of nuclear reactors, use of LNG in the electric power sector increased from 5.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2010 to 7.8 Bcf/d by 2012. However, since 2019, LNG consumption in the electric power sector has been declining as more of Japan’s nuclear capacity has returned to service. In 2022, less natural gas was consumed in Japan than in 2009, mainly because of slower economic growth, less industrial demand, high international LNG prices, and continued improvements in energy efficiency. The Energy Information Administration expects the decline in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector to continue.
Although LNG consumption has declined in recent years, LNG is expected to continue to play a significant role in Japan’s power generation mix over the mid-term. Natural-gas-fired generation accounted for 34% of generation in 2022 — the largest share of any fuel — followed by coal at 31%. As coal plant retirements continue and more electricity is generated from renewable sources, natural-gas-fired power plants will continue to provide load-following power supply to compensate for the intermittent nature of renewable generation, says the Energy Information Administration.
Japan’s ample natural gas storage capacity contributes to the country’s energy security by helping to meet seasonal demand peaks and ensuring that natural gas remains available in
case of interruption in global LNG supplies. Japan does not have international pipeline interconnections and imports about 98% of its natural gas in the form of LNG. LNG intended for consumption and additional volumes designated as
reserves or inventory are stored in above- ground cryogenic storage tanks co- located at more than 30 of Japan’s LNG import terminals.
Japan has the world’s largest LNG storage capacity, estimated to total 425.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas according to data from GIIGNL (International Group of LNG Importers). Liquefied natural gas stored in tanks as reserves or inventory can be used if LNG imports from global suppliers are interrupted. The Energy Information Administration estimates that from 2009 to 2023, Japan’s LNG inventory varied between 32% and 66% of available LNG storage capacity.
Japan’s LNG storage capacity exceeds average monthly consumption to meet peaks in seasonal demand. The balance between LNG imports, consumption, and inventory is closely monitored and continuously optimised because LNG gradually evaporates even under the most favourable ambient conditions during storage in cryogenic tanks.
Coal and petroleum
Policies in Japan target reducing the share of coal in power generation from 31% in 2022 to 19% by 2030 and the share of petroleum generation from 4% in 2022 to 2% by 2030. This target extends policies announced in 2020 to phase out old and inefficient coal units. The policies also focus on rapid development of technologies aimed at reducing emissions from coal, including integrated gasification combined cycle, carbon capture and sequestration, and fuel blending with ammonia and biomass.
Japan’s government announced that it intends to review rules for power grid use to prioritise renewable electricity generation over coal-fired electricity generation. In 2023, Japan’s government announced that all new coal-fired power plants must have very stringent emission reduction measures in place.
Japan plans to close or suspend around 90% of the existing coal-fired power plants that have been deemed inefficient: approximately 100 facilities. Although specifics regarding these criteria and a list of coal plants that are considered inefficient have not been made public, it’s likely the facilities will include older plants that use subcritical technologies and less efficient supercritical systems. Based on such a cutoff, the Energy Information Administration suggests that the 100 oldest facilities (approximately 24 GW of coal-fired capacity) could close or suspend operations. This policy would reduce Japan’s total installed coal capacity by about 40%. Only 1.2 GW of new coal capacity is currently under construction.
Two proposals are being considered to help keep up to 12 GW of existing coal-fired capacity operational after 2030. They include adding 20% or more ammonia to the coal supply or blending 25% or more wood pellets into the coal boilers to help lower CO2
plants open. The wood pellet programme is well underway, but the use of ammonia is still being tested.
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) is offering a feed-in-tariff (FIT) that pays owners of coal-fired plants for every kilowatthour generated by wood pellets in a coal boiler. The FIT is offered for 20 years. The programme has resulted in more than 3 million tons of wood pellets being imported in 2023, an amount likely to increase in the future. To qualify for the FIT, METI requires that generators keep lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions under certain limits.
The pace of coal retirements actually achieved under Japan’s phaseout plan will depend on several factors, including:
addition of nuclear capacity through restarts and new facility additions;
growth in renewables (both wind and solar) beyond what is currently in development; and the ability to balance the power grid as renewable generation grows.
emissions and keep the
Left, Sendai PWRs, first units to start up (in 2015) post Fukushima (photo Kyushu). Right, Shimane BWR site (photo Chugoku). Shimane 2 is hoping to restart by the end of this year, and would be the first BWR to resume operation post Fukushima
* Source: Today in Energy, US Energy Information Administration, 2 May 2024 (
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61944). Principal contributors: Victoria Zaretskaya, Jonathan Russo, Slade Johnson
www.modernpowersystems.com | May 2024 | 21
Billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)
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