Headlines | News Carbon intensity falls to all–time low


Worldwide Emissions abatement Ember’s fourth annual Global Electricity Review reports that the carbon intensity of global electricity generation fell to a level of 436g CO2/kWh in 2022, the lowest ever recorded, owing to record growth inwind and solar, which reached a 12% share in the global electricity mix, up from 10% in 2021. Together, all clean electricity sources (renewables and nuclear) reached 39% of global electricity, a new record high. Solar generation rose by 24%, making it the fastest-growing electricity source for 18 years in a row: wind generation grew by 17%. Over sixty countries now generate more than 10% of their electricity from wind and solar. However, other sources of low carbon electricity fell for the first time since 2011 owing to a reduction in nuclear output and fewer new nuclear and hydro plants coming online.


Limited coal increase, gas demand flattens


Despite the fall in carbon intensity, power sector emissions rose in 2022 (+1.3%), reaching an all-time high. Electricity may be


cleaner, but we are using more of it. Coal generation increased by 1.1%, in line with average growth in the last decade. The ‘coal power phasedown’ agreed at COP26 in 2021 may not have begun in 2022, but it is also true that the energy crisis didn’t lead to a major increase in coal burn as many feared. Gas power generation fell marginally (-0.2%) in 2022 – for the second time in three years – in the wake of high gas prices globally. Gas-to-coal switching was limited in 2022 because gas was already mostly more expensive than coal in 2021. Only 31 GW of new gas power plants were built in 2022, the lowest in 18 years. But 2022 also saw the lowest number of coal plant closures in seven years, as countries look to maintain back-up capacity.


Renewables


Wind and solar are slowing the rise in power sector emissions. The growth in wind and solar generation alone (+557 TWh) met 80% of global electricity demand growth in 2022 (+694 TWh).


Clean power growth is likely to exceed electricity demand growth in 2023; this would


be the first year for this to happen outside of a recession. With average growth rates, Ember forecasts that 2023 will see a slight fall in fossil generation (-47 TWh, -0.3%), with bigger falls in subsequent years as wind and solar grow further. That would mean 2022 hit “peak” emissions, a global turning point in emissions control.


But the report warns that although a new era of falling power sector emissions may be very close, wind and solar and all renewables sources will need to maintain high growth rates this decade to achieve it – while more attention to efficiency is needed to avoid runaway growth in electricity demand. And although it is the beginning of the end of the fossil age, just how quickly power sector emissions will fall is not yet determined. It all depends, says Ember, on the actions taken now by governments, businesses and citizens to put the world on a pathway to clean power by 2040.


Ember’s annual Global Electricity Review analyses electricity data from 78 countries representing 93% of global electricity demand and includes estimated changes in the remaining generation.


‘USD 35 trillion investment by 2030 needed’ for successful transition


Worldwide Energy transition The global energy transition is off-track, aggravated by the effects of global crises, according to a preview of the International Renewable Energy Agency’s ‘World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023’, which calls for a fundamental course correction in the transition.


A successful energy transition, it says, demands bold, transformative measures reflecting the urgency of the present situation. Investment and comprehensive policies across the globe and all sectors must grow renewables and instigate the structural changes required for the predominantly renewables-based energy transition. The Preview shows that the scale and extent of change falls far short of the 1.5°C pathway. Progress has been made, notably in the power sector where renewables account for 40 % of installed power generation globally, contributing to an unprecedented 83 % of global power additions in 2022. But to keep 1.5°C alive, deployment levels must grow from some 3000 GW today to over 10 000 GW in 2030, an average of 1000 GW annually. Deployment is also limited to certain parts of the world. China, the European Union and the United States accounted for two-thirds of all


additions last year, leaving developing nations further behind.


IRENA’s director-general Francesco La Camera commented: “The stakes could not be higher. A profound and systemic transformation of the global energy system must occur in under 30 years, underscoring the need for a new approach to accelerate the energy transition. Pursuing fossil fuel and sectoral mitigation measures is necessary but insufficient to shift to an energy system fit for the dominance of renewables.” “The emphasis must shift from supply to demand, toward overcoming the structural obstacles impeding progress. IRENA’s Preview outlines three priority pillars of the energy transition, the physical infrastructure, policy and regulatory enablers and well-skilled workforce, requiring significant investment and new ways of co-operation in which all actors can engage in the transition and play an optimal role.”


The Preview warns that a lack of progress further increases investment needs and calls for a systematic change in the volume and type of investments to prioritise the energy transition. Although global investment in energy transition technologies reached a new record of USD 1.3 trillion in 2022, yearly investments


must more than quadruple to over USD 5 trillion to stay on the 1.5°C pathway. By 2030, cumulative investments must amount to USD 44 trillion, with transition technologies representing 80 % of the total, or USD 35 trillion, prioritising efficiency, electrification, grid expansion and flexibility.


Any new investment decisions should be carefully assessed to simultaneously drive the transition and reduce the risk of stranded assets. Some 41 % of planned investment by 2050 remains targeted at fossil fuels. Around USD 1 trillion of planned annual fossil fuel investment by 2030 must be redirected towards transition technologies and infrastructure to keep the 1.5°C target within reach.


Furthermore, public sector intervention is required to channel investments towards countries in a more equitable way. In 2022, 85 % of global renewable energy investment benefitted less than 50 % of the world’s population. Africa accounted for only 1 % of additional capacity in 2022. IRENA’s ‘Global Landscape of renewable energy 2023’ confirms that regions home to about 120 developing and emerging markets continue to receive comparatively little investment.


The full WETO report will be released later this year.


www.modernpowersystems.com | April 2023 | 5


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