Transmission & distribution |
Making the most of the solar boom with dynamic line rating
A surge of solar power is placing significant strains on the grid, leading to costly curtailment. Rather than ramping up infrastructure investment the solution to building out solar’s full potential could actually come from smarter, grid-enhancing technology
Xavier Paquez R&D Scientist and Data Scientist, Ampacimon
Cheap and clean PV is the fastest growing source of electrcity in the EU, with an estimated 406 GW of cumulative capacity as of the end of 2025, according to SolarPower Europe. The reason is clear. According to the European Commission, the cost of solar power decreased by 82% between 2010 and 2020. This dramatic reduction has made solar energy the most competitive source of electricity in many parts of the EU. Indeed, last year almost half of all electricity in the EU came from renewables and more than a fifth of this came from solar alone. It’s a similar situation in the USA and in parts of Asia too. Recent analysis from the US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reports that US total solar installed capacity is about 248 GW. Top states include California, which now hosts close to 52 GW of solar generation, supplying almost a third of the state’s power. Long the US leader, California is rapidly being caught up by other states, such as Texas, Arizona and Florida. Texas, for example, is in second place for total solar production and added the most utility-scale solar capacity nationwide in 2024. Additional solar installed capacity in the state is expected to exceed 41 GW over the next decade, doubling solar installed capacity, which currently stands at around 41.5 GW. The SEIA notes that just a decade ago, only three states had more than 1 GW of solar capacity installed. Today, there are 33 states that can boast more than that threshold. There are plenty of indications that, given favourable conditions, this remarkable growth will continue. Some 10.8 GW of new solar capacity was installed across the US in Q1 2025, for example. However, while solar is evidently cheap, clean and flexible, its very success is also creating challenges.
The solar challenge
Considering the remarkable and sustained growth of distributed energy generation, such as solar, one of the key issues is integration of such capacity within the existing grid infrastructure. With significant increases in solar power, conventional current flows, which previously ran from large, centralised power plants out towards the local
Impact on line capacity of ambient temperature, solar heating, and wind. Source: Ampacimon
distribution network, are reversing. Large volumes of distributed roof-top solar, for example, are feeding power from the edges of the network. At the same time, utility-scale solar projects are feeding in power via their networks. Collectively this is introducing congestion into the transmission grid. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has drawn attention to the major impact this congestion is having, citing the example of The Netherlands, where it says grid congestion has become a major bottleneck impeding the energy transition. They note that the country has seen impressive growth in renewable electricity generation, with solar PV capacity growing 500% between 2018 and 2023, driven mainly by rooftop installations. However, while solar capacity was booming, grid capacity did not follow
suit. In addition, a net-metering arrangement offers payment for all the power delivered to the grid, irrespective of supply and demand as well as the market price. The outcome is a system which does not incentivise solar PV to attempt to meet the needs of system and instead favours generation of the maximum volume possible. The IEA says this has resulted in grid congestion and delays in expanding or upgrading the system. It points out that in early 2025, there were around 10 000 large users and 7500 generation projects larger than household-scale PV waiting to connect to the grid. In 2022, the Netherlands transmission system operator, TenneT, spent EUR388 million on grid congestion management and similar trends are being seen elsewhere in Europe and in the US too.
Comparison of different types of line rating. Source: Ampacimon 38 | March 2026 |
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