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“Time is fast running out for climate change solutions” – IPCC


Worldwide Emissions abatement The dangers of climate change are mounting so rapidly that they could soon overwhelm the ability of both nature and humanity to adapt unless greenhouse gas emissions are quickly reduced, according to a 3750 page report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on 28 February. Written by 270 researchers from 67 countries, the report warns that if average warming passes 1.5 deg C, the situation could be beyond recall. Many leaders, including president Biden, have undertaken to limit total global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels, but achieving that goal would require nations to all but eliminate their fossil-fuel emissions by 2050. Most are falling well short of that target. Some efforts to invest in adaptation measures, such as flood barriers to limit damage, are often too ‘incremental’, and future threats will require transformational changes in how we live. The report also carries a stark warning: if temperatures keep rising, more and more people will suffer unavoidable loss or be forced to leave their homes, creating population shift and dislocation on a global scale.


The report says that few nations will escape unscathed and effects are already being felt. Ferocious heat waves made worse by global warming have killed hundreds in the USA and Canada, huge floods have devastated Germany and China, and wildfires have raged out of control in Australia and Russia. The following consists of extracts from a digest of the report put together by the BBC.


Things are worse than we thought. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the destruction of coral reefs are among climate related impacts at the more severe end of what predictive models have expected. And more quickly than previously assessed by the IPCC. Right now, around 40% of the world’s population is “highly vulnerable” to the impacts of climate change. And the burden is falling mainly on those who did the least to cause the problem. “For Africa around 30% of all the maize growing areas will go out of production, for beans it’s around 50% on the current emissions trajectory solutions – so there are certain parts of the world, particularly in Africa, which will become uninhabitable.” said Patrick Verkooijen, CEO of the Global Centre on Adapation Severe loss and damage is inevitable. For several years, developing countries have been trying to get richer nations to take the idea of loss and damage seriously. It is defined as those impacts of climate change that can’t be adapted to, or slow onset events like sea level rise. At COP26 in Glasgow, political progress on the issue stalled when the US and EU blocked a dedicated funding facility for loss and damage. Now the IPCC clearly states that the observed impacts of climate change include ‘widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people.’ The endorsement by the IPCC is likely to give loss and damage a major boost in climate talks, a fact recognised by the UK’s COP President, Alok Sharma, who is in charge of UN negotiations until COP27 begins in Egypt later this year.


Technology is not the whole answer.


could make matters worse rather than better, for example machines that extract CO2


According to the IPCC, the use of some technologies designed to limit warming or reduce CO2


directly from the air, a process that could trigger the release of more warming gas. “If you remove CO2


from the atmosphere, you’ll get a rebound effect from elsewhere in the carbon cycle,” said Linda Schneider from the Heinrich Böll Foundation. “The oceans, the land reservoirs, will have an outgassing effect. And so some of the CO2


… removed from the


atmosphere will be returned.” Cities offer hope. As cities continue to grow they can push for renewable energy, greener transport, and buildings. This could limit destructive climate impacts for millions, in particular in coastal cities where the options exist to begin to mobilise around coastal urban development.


The small window is closing fast. Nonetheless the report’s authors remain convinced that the worst impacts can be averted - if we act in time. The IPCC says this opportunity for action will only last for the rest of this decade. “Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.” If the world can cut emissions drastically and significantly boost spending on adaptation, that could avoid locking in certain disaster.


Investing in nature will also be a bulwark against the worst, says the IPCC, which calls for 30-50% of the world to be conserved. “Nature can be our saviour,” said Inger Anderson, the head of the UN Environment Programme, “but only if we save it first.”


US energy consumption ‘will grow for next 30 years’ USA Energy industry


Energy consumption will increase in the United States over the next 30 years across a variety of economic scenarios as population and economic growth outpace energy efficiency gains, according to the US Energy Information Association’s Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022).


The AEO2022 Reference case includes its baseline assumptions about technology, policy, and the economy through to 2050. This case projects a future in which slowing growth in consumption in an increasingly energy-efficient US economy contrasts with increasing energy supply because of technological progress in renewable sources and resource development of oil and natural gas.


The alternative cases explore a variety of assumptions regarding economic growth,


commodity prices, resource availability, and technology costs compared with the Reference case. EIA intends to release studies of alternative cases during the coming year. Key findings from AEO2022 include:


● Petroleum and natural gas remain the most- consumed sources of energy in the United States through to 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing.


● EIA projects that US energy consumption will continue to grow through to 2050 as population and economic growth outpace energy efficiency gains.


● Petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the most-consumed category of fuels through to 2050 in the AEO2022 Reference case. The transportation sector will consume the major part of these fuels, particularly motor gasoline and diesel.


8 | March 2022 | www.modernpowersystems.com


The share of generation from renewable energy sources will rapidly increase over the next 30 years as state and federal policies continue to provide significant incentives to invest in RE for electricity generation and transportation. New technologies will continue to drive down the cost of wind and solar generators.


In the Reference case, EIA projects that US natural gas exports will rise through to 2050, while from 2022 through to 2050 crude oil exports will remain near their projected peak.


In all of the AEO2022 case results being released at this point, production of renewable energy will grow more quickly than any other fuel source through to 2050. Consumption of natural gas will also continue to grow over this period.


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