| Australasia
a plan. Because although the plan is not perfect, we can all agree it is better than having no plan at all. There are places in the world with similar challenges that don’t have a plan and the consequences are plain.” Water resource management is “a wicked problem” McConville goes on to add, saying a defining characteristic of wicked problems is that they are essentially unique. There is no simple or final solution, nor a clear or definitive way to test whether the problem has been solved. And it’s not about getting the ‘one right’ answer, because there simply isn’t one, but it’s about bringing people together to find a way forward. “So while I do not claim the basin plan is a perfect solution, when I speak to people across the basin, there is agreement that we’re in a much better position now than we would be without it. It’s not been an easy road to get here though,” McConville added. With so many different views, it’s easy to forget that the basin plan was actually born out of unprecedented consensus. As the Chief Executive of the MDBA said: “Seeing the Murray–Darling system on the brink of collapse at the height of the Millennium drought prompted us as a nation to agree urgent action was needed. For the health of the river ecosystem, for the people, communities and industries that depend on it, and for the millions here and abroad who rely on the food and fibre it produces, we had to safeguard the future of a resource vital to our nation’s prosperity and way of life. We had to reduce the amount being taken from our river system. “The kind of political consensus that saw six governments agree to the plan, and the enduring commitment to push forward on implementation, is just about unheard of. It speaks to just how much was at stake – but let’s not forget, the job is never done and there is still so much at stake. It’s why implementing the basin plan in full remains so important.” Significant progress has been made in meeting
the water recovery targets set in the plan but there is still more to do and, with water recovery having both positive and negative social and economic impacts on communities, the prospect of further action is both supported and opposed. “Let me be frank: We are at a critical stage of the basin plan’s implementation….Much has been achieved, but we can’t take our foot off the pedal yet,” McConville stated. As climate change exacerbates the challenges of Australia’s already variable climate, water security is becoming increasingly important. With a total of 3.6 million people relying on water from the basin rivers for drinking, washing, sanitation, industry, farming and irrigation, and around 40% of Australia’s agricultural produce and 7% of the country’s tourism industry value in the basin too, water security is synonymous with the health of the basin. Rainfall patterns are shifting and average inflows to the River Murray for the last 20 years were just 51% of what they were over the past 100 years, and nearly half of the long-term streamflow gauges in the basin show a declining trend since records began in 1970. And while both the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO predict a hotter and drier future, subject to more frequent droughts and extreme weather events, there is the possibility of a 10% reduction in rainfall leading to a 30% reduction in stream inflows. “To put it bluntly: our water security – our
communities – will depend on our ability to manage our water resources through these conditions. But, fortunately,” McConville said, “unlike many other countries facing the same threats to water security – we have the basin plan. Seeking to ensure that the river system is there for
future generations is a delicate balancing act but, the MDBA’s Chief Executive pointed out, the plan “gives us the framework we need to meet the challenge head on”. After more than a decade of implementation when it has been tested in extreme conditions, including through some of the hottest and driest years on record, McConville says that the basin plan is working to help build a resilient system and cushion the impacts of a warming climate but its full benefits won’t be realised overnight, and there is the need to continually monitor, gather new information, and improve. An opportunity to do this lies in the form of the upcoming basin plan review. To be completed in 2026, this will look at what’s working, what isn’t and what should be changed. In particular, four priority areas have been identified: How can the basin plan be improved to respond to climate change? How can the best outcomes for all social, cultural, environmental, and economic values be achieved? How can the basin plan be improved to recognise First Nation’s values in water management and enhance their involvement? How could the basin plan framework be simplified? For the vast majority it’s not something they want for themselves or for their personal benefit. It’s something they want for their community, their country, their children and their children’s children. “That’s why I believe,” McConville said, “our purpose at the MDBA can be articulated with just three words: rivers for generations.”
Naomi’s strategy
Part of the Murray-Darling Basin, the Naomi region in northern New South Wales recently published its new regional water strategy. One of the most productive agricultural areas in the state, Naomi’s environment, residents, and business are being tested during extreme weather events. For example between 2017 and early 2020, severe drought conditions resulted in: Lower parts of the Namoi River stopping flowing. Tamworth’s town water supply falling to critical levels. Gross domestic product in the New England-North West region falling 15% below average.
The drought was followed by floods and some of the wettest years on record and such extreme weather patterns will happen again. Future climate conditions in the Naomi region could lead to: Changing rainfall patterns – There is the potential for shifts in seasonal patterns, with a tendency for lower annual rainfall. Average winter rainfall may drop by 35% by 2070, while average summer and autumn rainfall may increase by 35% under a dry climate change scenario.
Higher evaporation - Evapotranspiration could increase by 6% up to by 2070 compared to levels between 1990 and 2009, with the largest increases in winter and spring. More droughts - More prolonged droughts and more frequent, shorter periods of drought.
www.waterpowermagazine.com | December 2023 | 13
Above: David Gerke (centre) celebrating his award as Tasmanian Professional Engineer of the Year, Tasmania. Pictured here with Dr Nick Fleming, Engineers Australia National President and Tammy Chu, Entura Managing Director
Below: Aerial view of the Aratiatia dam on Waikato River in New Zealand. The country is preparing for new dam safety regulations which come into force in 2024
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