| New opportunities
June last year with an installed capacity of 10.2GW, making the project the seventh-largest hydropower project worldwide.
Most of the capacity additions until 2030 are
expected to come from large-scale projects in Asia and Africa. In Africa specifically, installed capacity is expected to grow at a combined annual growth rate of 2.5% from 2017 to 2023, driven by Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda. Most of the large-scale projects in Asia and Africa are managed by state-owned companies. Rystad Energy expects a slowdown in the pace of hydropower development in China over the coming years due to growing concerns over environmental impact and the shrinking availability of economically attractive sites for large projects. However, India’s new long-term targets and financial incentives are expected to unlock a large pipeline of previously stalled projects as the government aims to boost hydropower capacity by about 55% this decade and reach 73GW by 2030. No significant capacity additions are expected in North America and Europe for at least two years. Still, fleet modernisation will be a priority in both continents during this decade. On a regional basis, Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia- Pacific are expected to grow, as untapped potential is being developed to meet rising energy demand. These regions also need cost-effective power generation to expand electrification. This decade, a considerable portion of investments will be spent on modernising ageing plants in advanced economies. In addition, significant investments are required for existing infrastructure, including upgrades, replacements and the addition of turbines. Most of the spending on modernisation will be in North America, Europe and Eurasia, where most of the world’s ageing fleet is located. Investments will be required to restore performance and adapt plants to operating conditions that have changed since the plants were built. Overall, Rystad Energy says that the proportion of investments spent on modernising and maintaining existing hydropower facilities and infrastructure will be significantly higher than spending on the construction of new power plants in younger markets.
IRENA Hydropower’s crucial role in the clean energy
transition has been highlighted again by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in its latest report on achieving global net zero goals. In World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022,
IRENA’s message is that to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels, hydropower capacity needs to double to around 2500GW by 2050. The report states that, to stay on track, hydropower’s installed capacity (excluding pumped hydro) will have to grow 30 percent by 2030 to nearly 1500GW.
Realising this ambition will entail boosting average annual installations around the globe to 31GW in this decade, compared with 2020’s additions of 13GW, IRENA says. Asia will continue to dominate at a regional level and by 2030 it will account for more than half of all installed capacity and 46% of available technical potential. China, India, and the
Russian Federation together make up 75% of Asia’s capacity. Major expansion is also foreseen in North America beginning in this decade, and in the Middle East and Africa from 2030 onwards. To make this happen, IRENA says it is essential that a pipeline of projects be created in this decade to position the regions to ramp up installations in later decades (because projects take several years to be developed). It is estimated that the Middle East and Africa, as well as the Americas, will need an annual installation capacity of 3GW each this decade. “Most regions of the world face difficulties in ensuring the accessibility and reliability of hydropower,” the report states. “Public acceptance, grid connections, adverse environmental impacts, high investment costs and extended payback times are among the key challenges. Non- economic barriers like lengthy permit and licencing processes, construction delays, ambiguity in water regulations, and unfavourable policy changes have also hindered the development of hydroelectric greenfield projects.” Reflecting on IRENA’s assertion hydropower needs to double by 2050, Chief Executive of the International Hydropower Association Eddie Rich, said: “Addressing climate change and energy security require the same action: we need a radically different long-term energy model based on affordable, clean energy.” ●
Above: Rystad Energy says that the hydropower market will continue its upward trajectory in 2022
References
www.rystadenergy.com
https://irena.org/
publications/2022/Mar/World- Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2022
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