Cross-border projects |
Hydro to power Tajikistan trade
The International Energy Agency has launched a cross-border electricity trading roadmap for Tajikistan to fully benefit from its unique hydropower potential
CROSS-BORDER ELECTRICITY TRADING can bring many benefits in terms of optimising resource allocation among the countries involved. The availability of generation technologies, geography, socio-economic factors, and political agreements will determine the potential for trading opportunities that can be developed and subsequently the benefits that could be achieved. Indeed, a lack of cross-border electricity trading opportunities has been a major factor in preventing Tajikistan from maximising revenue potential from surplus water flow during the summer; and limiting options for electricity imports during winter shortages. In October 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report to help address the situation. Called Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan, its central purpose is to assess the feasibility and extent of electricity trade with Tajikistan’s neighbours, and guide policy making to facilitate effective cross-border integration of electricity markets. Furthermore, the IEA says the report can serve as a
Above: Nurek Dam in Tajikistan. The 3000MW hydropower scheme provides over 50% of the country’s total installed generation capacity
Below: Tajikistan has much unfulfilled hydropower potential
roadmap to support Tajikistan’s National Development Strategy. By 2030 it aims to export at least 10TWh of hydropower generation and undertake reforms to improve the performance and sustainability of its power sector. Installed generation capacity in Tajikistan stands at 5810MW. Hydropower accounts for 3000MW coming from the Nurek hydropower project and about 1900MW from various run-of-river plants. With close to 527TWh of hydropower potential, and only about 23TWh being developed to date, electricity exports could bring much needed revenue to the state-owned utility Barki Tojik and help finance further development of the country’s water resources. The IEA report says that although electricity exports are the prime motivation of Tajikistan to pursue cross-border electricity trade and gain revenue, the option to import electricity in times of shortage should also be open. Electricity shortages in the winter are critical for
Tajikistan and load shedding has been a regular practice. The most recent was in December 2020 when water levels dropped at the Nurek hydropower facility. Although further development of hydro resources has been a priority, the delayed 3600MW Rogun hydropower project isn’t expected to be completed until about 2030. In the long term, the IEA reports, climate change could pose risks in terms of melting glaciers and increasing droughts. Given Tajikistan’s reliance on hydro, it exposes the power system to risks arising from potential water unavailability. Apart from higher evapotranspiration affecting agricultural water demand, recent studies show that Tajik glaciers could lose 15-20% of their original volume over the next 50 years. This is estimated to lead to an initial increase in
16 | March 2022 |
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water flow in key hydropower rivers such as the Vaksh, but with a long-term decrease due to the depletion of glacial reserves.
Diversifying electricity sources and trading partners
through cross-border trading, the report states, could help Tajikistan manage the risks related to water supply and hydropower output. Imports could also delay or avoid the need to build new thermal generation capacity. In Tajikistan’s power sector plan, coal is the main fuel choice in several of its scenarios to address increasing electricity demand, especially in winter.
Hydropower resources According to the IEA, Tajikistan has several
neighbouring countries with which it could establish cross-border electricity trading. Based on factors such as transmission system requirements and potential revenue, developing further trade with Central Asia and Pakistan appear to be suitable options to achieve its export goals in the current decade. It has existing transmission infrastructure with its Central Asian neighbours that is in the process of being reactivated; increasing its utilisation would be a low-risk option. Other countries in the region could be considered
for cross-border electricity trading, but those would be much more difficult to establish in the 2030 target period. Political factors and/or security risks associated with trading or infrastructure construction are factors beyond Tajikistan’s control and thus could delay efforts to achieve the export goal by 2030. The IEA says that to reinforce its unique hydropower advantages, Tajikistan could refurbish and upgrade its facilities to improve technical flexibility. This would strengthen the country’s options to provide flexibility services as its neighbours ramp up the share of variable renewables in their power generation mix. As the report concludes: “Tajikistan could unlock several cross-border electricity trading opportunities with the existing and planned infrastructure within the next decade by investing in its institutions and encouraging neighbouring countries to do the same. By developing a modern power sector, Tajikistan could deliver financial benefits to its citizens and environmental benefits to the wider region through the expanded use of its hydropower resources.” ●
References Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap. 2021. International Energy Agency. Co- Funded by the European Union. The full report can be read at:
www.iea.org/reports/cross-border- electricity-trading-for-tajikistan-a-roadmap
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