Above: Vogtle 3 was the first US reactor to be completed in decades Photo credit: Denton Rumsey/
Shutterstock.com The ITIF analysis emphasises China’s innovation strengths
in organisational, systemic, and incremental innovation, noting that China’s state-backed approach excels at fielding nuclear technologies and making them a reality. The Chinese government has prioritised domestic nuclear
reactor construction as a key part of its energy strategy and is likely to use this as a foundation for competitive reactor exports. The report draws parallels with Beijing’s strategy for electric vehicles and batteries in this regard. ITIF also suggests that Chinese nuclear enterprises will
gain further incremental advantages given national policy has long prioritised both conventional and advanced reactor technology as a strategically important capability. Although Chinese government approvals of new reactors slowed in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster the national commitment to nuclear power increased significantly with the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025). Released in March 2021, it called for a buildout of 200 GW of nuclear capacity by 2035. By 2050, the report says, China wants nuclear to provide at least 15% of its total electricity generation. Although the nuclear contribution is expected to be less than that of wind and solar, nuclear energy will be crucial to meeting China’s goal of building a carbon neutral economy by mid-century. Economic and national security considerations also represent key nuclear drivers given China’s dependence on oil imports. The country seeks to replace all 2,990 of its coal-fired generators with clean energy solutions by 2060.
US should ape China’s approach to nuclear The report highlights that while the United States remains the global leader in nuclear energy production with its 94 operating plants accounting for 31% of global nuclear power production, this represents almost entirely a previously fielded installed base. A fifth of US electricity and half of its clean energy is nuclear but only two nuclear power plants have been completed in the last decade. This is in sharp contrast with China’s commitment to
commercial nuclear power which has seen it nearly triple its nuclear capacity over the past decade. The report adds it took the US nearly 40 years to add the same nuclear power capacity as China achieved in the last 10 years. Nuclear fusion represents another potentially
transformative, disruptive nuclear energy innovation and in January 2024, the Chinese government launched a new national industrial consortium to promote the development and advancement of the technology. However, fusion technology remains very nascent and China and the US are
probably on par with regard to technology development, according to the ITIF report. It says China is likely to adopt a fast-follower approach with regard to nuclear fusion and will probably seek to build an advantage when it comes to rapidly scaling deployment of fusion reactors. In this regard China’s demonstrated ability to deploy fission reactors at scale gives it a potential advantage when fusion comes online. Furthermore, the country already leads in the number of nuclear fusion patent applications. ITIF argues that for the US to again become nuclear industry leader, it will need to ape China’s strategy and adopt a coherent “whole-of-government” approach. Among other steps, the report says, this would mean building sufficient human resources at federal R&D and regulatory agencies to support the innovation, down-selection, regulatory approval, and deployment of new reactor types. In addition, incentives, tax credits, or attractive financing options that facilitate the production of cost-competitive nuclear energy, and policies such as streamlined export credit programmes that support US nuclear exports are needed. The ITIF analysis suggests that, currently, civilian nuclear energy represents an industry in which the US has experienced a significant (and potentially permanent) loss of capabilities.
Follower or leader? Concluding, the ITIF report states that the common narrative is that China is a copier and the United States the innovator. It warns that such a narrative often supports a lackadaisical attitude toward technology and industrial policy. The analysis also argues this assumption is misguided because it is possible for innovators to lose leadership to copiers with lower cost structures. This has been witnessed in many industries, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, solar panels, telecoms equipment, machine tools, quite possibly, nuclear power. It is also not clear that China is a sluggish copier and always destined to be a follower. The basis of the ITIF conclusion comes from metrics like scientific publications on nuclear energy and nuclear energy-related patents. On both counts China is making significant strides, ranking first in the H-index metric measuring the scholarly impact of journal publications and recording a 13.4% share of all nuclear patents last year. In 2008 China’s share of all nuclear patents was 1.3%. Ultimately the report cites Jacopo Buongiorno, a
professor of nuclear science and engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), who observes: “China is the de facto world leader in nuclear technology.” ■
www.neimagazine.com | September 2024 | 43
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