| Climate change
“What’s more,” she concluded, “when thoughtfully deployed in tandem with natural infrastructure, hydro soars well above many other renewables as a leading solution for building a resilient future.”
Postponed renovation Back in Europe, Axpo has announced that extensive
renovation work at the Gigerwald Dam in Switzerland, is to be postponed for two years, due to the imminent power shortage expected this winter. Although the work is critical for the long-term operation of the plant, due to the forthcoming extreme energy situation, priority will be placed on ensuring the production of up to 160GWh of energy from the water in the reservoir and recirculation operation, the company said. Extensive renovation scheduled for this winter would have required full drainage of the reservoir. Construction preparations that began in the spring of 2022 have been suspended immediately and renovation work has been postponed until the winter of 2024/25. “The danger of a power shortage in the upcoming
winter has intensified over the last few weeks,” explained Christoph Brand, Axpo’s CEO. “As a result we have decided to suspend work immediately in order to save every possible kilowatt-hour that can be produced from the reservoir and ensure recirculation operation during the winter months. In doing so, we want to continue boosting our contribution to the security of supply.” The Gigerwald reservoir will now be fully drained in the winter of 2024/25 to ensure that renovation work can be carried out smoothly. The plant is expected to go back into operation in early summer of 2025.
Power shortages Extreme droughts and the lack of water in
hydroelectric systems across Europe could be contributory factors to insufficient energy supplies across the UK this winter. Professional advisory firm Lane Clark & Peacock
(LCP) has shared its analysis highlighting that coal could be playing a crucial role in providing energy security over the coldest months of the year, but even with this emergency support, the country could still be facing ten hours of power cuts throughout the winter. Furthermore, LCP looked at the very possible scenario of the UK energy system receiving no imports through its interconnectors from Europe (due to continued nuclear shortages in France and low hydroelectric levels in Norway) and concluded that the UK could experience a loss of load expectation of 29 hours. This level would be reduced to ten hours if the country was to tap into its winter contingency reserve and prop up the energy system with coal. “The irony is that as Europe baked during this summer’s heatwave, it was simultaneously sowing the seeds for further pain this winter,” Chris Matson, Partner at LCP, explains. “As a result of the extreme droughts and the lack of water that is hitting hydroelectric systems in key interconnector markets like Norway, coupled by the issues we are seeing in France with their nuclear reactors, there are significant doubts about the availability of electricity coming into the UK from the continent which is critical to its security of supply.” ●
The effect of climate change on global hydropower generation, based on observed trends and near-future projections. The effects are indicated by two levels of symbols: high and low. Generally, if a climate change effect is discussed in more than 50% of the review papers for the region, a “high” symbol is adopted. Also shown are the major rivers (blue lines), mountain ranges (cyan hue), and the location of existing and planned hydropower plants (purple dots) (Global Energy Observatory,2018; Zarfl et al.,2015).
Reference: Wasti, Asphota & Ray, Patrick & Wi, Sungwook & Folch, Christine & Ubierna, María & Karki, Pravin. (2022). Climate change and the hydropower sector: A global review. WIREs Climate Change. 13. 10.1002/wcc.757.
Global review
The impact of climate change on the hydropower sector is difficult to predict and not globally uniform. As nearly all existing hydropower projects are river-based, they are susceptible to climate change phenomena that impact rivers, such as: ● Depletion of the permanent glacier and ice storage with increasing average annual temperature.
● Depletion of seasonal snow storage with warmer winters. ● Intensification of precipitation extremes, and variability. ● Increased evaporation and water demand. A review paper by Wasti et al has undertaken a global survey of the literature on the effect of climate change on hydropower, identifying room for improvement in current approaches to evaluation of the net benefits of hydropower projects under climate change. Although several national and international guidelines have recently been
developed for climate change impact assessment in the hydropower sector, the authors say, “ample room for improvement remains”. They suggest that the cascade of uncertainty from historical data through the modelling chain should be recorded, and that real-time continuous monitoring of climate change indicators, such as streamflow and precipitation at a local scale, is important. Furthermore, improved capabilities in short-term forecasting, regular updating of reservoir operation rules, coupling of existing hydropower projects with other renewable energy sources, and periodic analysis of energy markets, all help to manage hydropower projects under climate change. Figure 1 below illustrates the dominant effects of climate change on hydropower generation in each region.
References
Glaciers and Fjords: How SKL Will Extract the Full Value of Its Hydro Flexibility by Olga Apostolova. Published on Jul 07, 2022
https://www.volue.com/news/skl-extracts-full-value-of-hydro-flexibility
Why Hydro is Key to the Energy Transition, Even in the Face of Drought by Gia Schneider, CEO and Co-Founder of Natel Energy. October 3, 2022. NHA Powerhouse.
https://www.hydro.org/powerhouse/article/why-hydro-is-key-to-the-energy- transition-even-in-the-face-of-drought/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_ io&utm_campaign=newsletter
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