INDUSTRY EXPERT
We might see an acceleration of 5G and the enablement of connected (autonomous) cars. The government has increasingly made noises about public transport, could there be a renaissance? Might people tire of working at home or could it become even more widespread? Covid has provided amongst other things social upheaval. The established norms of dormitory towns, of crash pads and studio apartments and the high costs, not only financial, of commuting have juddered to a halt.
The future of the industry appears very much to be a turbulent, more demanding and continuously evolving and changing environment. An environment of more effective and more engaged regulation, enforcement and compliance, a land- scape of larger operator groups, of driver power, of demanding consumers, less cash, more accreditations and qualifications, more training and probably less customers and almost certainly less drivers.
Operators will be asked to do more; safeguarding is gaining serious momentum; councils are requiring cabs to be the eyes and ears of the community and to share their knowledge of the shady dealings that go on in any town or city. In some cases, to almost take over the regulator’s role by inspecting vehicles, maintenance records and the rest. Depending where you sit – its not all bad BUT it is change that has to be managed, it involves costs that increase and it requires better systems, better processes and ultimately better people.
If asked to predict, I would expect many of the new players to get the hell out of the cab industry – there is no money in it for the get rich quick brigade, the so-called disruptors who want to ignore the law, the regulations and even gravity with their mad so-called business models. They can take their disruption, their bean bags, white boards and sloppy tee shirts and scruffy jeans and ‘investors (sic)’ and get involved in the next version of financial madness probably deliveries, groceries, fast food and who knows what.
The industry will I suggest be smaller, it will be better regulated and it will earn money, real money. Drivers earning more money is good, the industry attracts better people, they maintain their cars better, they invest in newer vehicles and customers are better looked after. Drivers will be better trained as a condition of licensing. Operators will be asked to do much more, to be better qualified, to take responsibility for more of the value chain. We will all be required to improve the environment. I suggest that current restrictions on driving through residential areas will broaden. Road pricing will certainly come along. But I could be wrong.
NOVEMBER 2021
How many conferences did we attend as transport profes- sionals listening to or talking about how the rail infrastructure was going to cope with the growth in commuting? How buses were busier in cities than at any time since the war? How could the commuting bulge be spread across the day? What will the next generation of conferences be about – how can we afford the rail infrastructure we have with only 40% of travellers?
These are not just interesting times, they are history in the making, they are social restructuring and commercial reorganisation at a scale probably not seen since Victorian times. The memes, cultural norms and customs and practice, that have remained largely unchanged since the 60’s and 70’s have now been turned on their heads. Covid appears to have led to an upheaval in retirement habits with many more people becoming economically inactive. Brexit has exacerbated the shortage of cheap labour. Shopping moving from physical to virtual has added stresses and strains to deliveries and provided an alternative employment opportunity for many taxi and private hire drivers.
So where does this leave the guy or girl with 150-200 cabs in a town/city up or down the country? Well, in every revolution there are winners and losers. Fighting against what is happening I believe is a forlorn and pointless waste of effort. There is a general acceptance that the planet is being damaged by burning fossil fuels. Working from home won’t end overnight, inflation is here, the trade will be smaller, you, as an operator will be asked to do more. So why not grasp the nettle, be seen as part of the solution not part of the problem? Safer travel, cleaner travel and ultimately more expensive travel is a model that with some effort, some imagination and some strategic thinking could provide a secure future for most.
I started this piece with a Chinese proverb so I think I should end with one:
“When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills.”
Dr Michael S. Galvin
mobilityserviceslimited.com
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