THERE IS MORE THAN JUST SUGAR OUT THERE


As we are heading towards the end of the year, the focus is turning from what we didn’t have this year to what we may have next year.


Southern Hemisphere Cane crops are close to the end, with Brazil CS producing about 32 mln m/t of sugar or 6,5 mln m/t less than the year before. Australia is going to end similar to lower with a crop around 4,2 mln m/t, 100k m/t lower than last year. South Africa sugar production is expected to end close to 1,9 mln m/t, about 140k m/t lower than last year.


Northern Hemisphere Beet crops are a mixed bag. The EU is on a marginally higher acreage but better Beet yields and okay sugar content, is estimated to increase to around 17 mln m/t, including the UK, about 1,5 mln m/t higher than last year. CIS crops are a mixed bag. Belarus may produce less, given the issues with Beet factories management and planted area/yields. The total sugar production may end close to 350k m/t. Ukraine is having a better crop and may produce 1,5 mln m/t offsetting the drop of Belarus. Russia has potential for a larger crop, given the area increased close to 9 pct and Agri yields were good. Russia is expected to produce around 5,7 mln m/t, perhaps a bit more.


In the Americas, the USA is expected to increase production by 100k m/t with a pick-up in Beet production more than the drop in Cane. Mexico is starting their harvest and is estimated to improve to 200k m/t, but it’s early days. So, the US would require less imports and Mexico would seek to export more.


When we look at Asian crops that are starting or will start,…well…they look promising. Indian harvest due to reasonable weather and higher acreage, despite some cane juice being allocated to ethanol production, may reach about 31 mln m/t, marginally better than last year. Pakistan is expected to surprise with a larger crop estimated at 6,5 mln m/t. Thailand is going to start their cane harvest in the early days of December, which is estimated from 85 mln to 93 mln m/t of cane vs. 86 mln m/t last year.


At this stage, giving what was produced and may be produced by March 22, Total Sugar production for April 21/March 22 may be 500k/1 mln m/t less than last year. With sugar demand expected to improve, the S&D for 21/22 shows a


sugar deficit of around 2 mln m/t. We estimate sugar production at 181,4 mln m/t vs. demand at 183,4 mln m/t basis R.V. (Raw Value = bringing everything to raw sugar basis).


The expected deficit is similar to 20/21 surplus so, since the large deficit in 19/20, close to 10,5 mln m/t, the Sugar World has not re-built stocks. When we look forward to 22/23 sugar year, we may see a small surplus, all going well and assuming that Sugar prices remain better than Ethanol in Brazil.


RUSSIA HAS POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER CROP, GIVEN THE AREA INCREASED CLOSE TO 9 PCT AND AGRI YIELDS WERE GOOD.


16 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q4 Edition 2021


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