Sugar has not been an exception with relatively good weather in Brazil, India, EU, CIS, etc…. Where crops were going to reduce, the drop wasn’t great and where crops would improve, well, some improved quite well!
SWEET SUGAR, BUT SWEETER FOR SOME THAN OTHERS!
What a beautiful sunny morning, with birds singing and sun shining! Well, that’s how Coffee Roasters may be feeling with the 40% tariff on Brazilian Coffee (and other Commodities/ Products) being cancelled by the US Gov.
The week of the 13th of Nov the US Gov cancelled the 10% on many Nations and for many products and Coffee had a setback. On the 20th of November (retroactive to the 13th of Nov) the 40% tariff was erased and Coffee tumbled. That’s the life of Commodities, when not only the S&D matters.
Coffee has been one of the last exceptions (Bull Market) after FCOJ, Cocoa and Sugar tumbled.
Economic and Political influences affect many parts of the Agri sector, which is an important component of Inflation data and therefore it matters.
We are also having the COP 30 in Manaus and the World knows that you can’t just take everything from Nature and not expect any consequences. Some People and Nations understand it, but not all are dealing to contain their Carbon footprint the same way.
Crop forecasts for 2025 and 2026 show that many Crops in many Nations will produce better yields as better prices in the recent years led to greater acreage in many countries. The Weather has been kind and therefore yields were mostly not affected and in some cases improved.
The EU Beet crop will be down, but not as bad as expected. Acreage may be down 8% and yields may be up 5%, so a 3% drop overall. EU sugar prices in the domestic market are trading lower than 1 year ago with relatively similar stocks and a lower crop! How come?
EU producers are having to deal with it. It seems likely that not all Beet that will be produced and harvested this year may be processed, given the current market and the Beet priced offered to farmers.
As we go into 2026, the EU Beet acreage may drop again and who knows how the weather will be! The EU will likely carry on importing less and exporting less and becoming a smaller player in the World Market.
Ukraine, Turkey and Iran will produce less and therefore there will be less exports and a bit more imports
The CIS is having a good crop too with better yields in Russia and Belarus, the main producers. Russia will have more to export and therefore the neighbours may have a lesser reason to import from other places.
Pakistan Cane crop had its fair share of Gov interference, and the Gov is “threatening” to de-regulate the sector, which has been on the spotlight due to high sugar prices. Will de-regulating bring lower prices?
16 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q4 Edition 2025
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