Chart 2: Soybean Exports - US vs South America Percent of World Total
Brazil’s soybean crop was planted early, and their growing conditions have been nearly ideal so far. Early- harvested soybeans should be available for export by late January. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has reported Argentina’s soybean planting progress at 21.7% complete, up from 9.4% the previous week but still slightly behind the 23.8% reported a year ago. Heavy rains last week caused flooding in the Pampas, which could result in losses to crops already planted, but replanting is possible with the warmer and drier weather that has been forecast for the region.
Source: USDA Chart 3: Soybean Production - US vs South America Indexed (1977 = 100)
As of 8th November , cumulative US soybean export sales had reached 43% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2018/19 marketing year. The 5-year average for this time of year is 66%. While the market continues to hear positive rhetoric on the US-China trade front, the eventual agreement will take months to hammer out. The framework could be accepted by both parties, only to have it tweaked over and over. In the meantime, the US has lost its share of the Chinese market, and it may be very difficult to get it back. Since 2016, US exports to China have been on the decline. Brazil’s have increased each year since 2011. Brazil’s new crop supplies will be ready to go by mid-January, and their soybean crop this year is in better shape than last year.
Source: USDA, The Hightower Report
Even with a trade new agreement with China, considerable damage has been done to US export prospects for this marketing year, and it will be difficult to return to the levels the US once held. Many traders see a permanent loss of soybean exports to China, as that nation has done all they can to avoid buying US soybeans. Production in the Black Sea region is expanding rapidly, and South America will also expand its production, while the US is likely to see a sharp drop for the coming year.
Chart 4: Soybean Exports - US vs South America Indexed (1977 = 100)
Terry Roggensack The Hightower Report E:
info@hightowerreport.com
Published on November 16 2018 Source: USDA, The Hightower Report
This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/ or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of The Hightower Report is strictly prohibited. Violators are subject to a $15,000 fine per violation.
31 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | November/December 2018
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36
