ILLUSTRATION: PETER GRUNDY


statistics


proper discussion about what data we should trust.” At local levels, the media is perhaps keener to flag up


positive news, such as the number of patients leaving hospital having recovered from Covid-19. The Portsmouth News reported how, while the city’s death toll was high, it was not as high as that of other UK cities with a similar density of population. Online surveys by the paper since lockdown are showing


how life is slowly returning to normal, and it is covering residents’ thoughts on shops reopening and other lifestyle changes. “A lot of our focus has been on people and what they’re doing to get through this,” says editor Mark Waldron. Both JPI Media and Reach have stats units that feed stories to local newsrooms. Lauren MacDougall, content editor at Kent Live, says statistics provide a “source of authority” for news that is appreciated by readers. In a large county, this means delving into district-level data provided by the ONS rather than large hospitals; she would like to see the media given local R (reproduction) rates. Some hospitals are keener than others to provide data on


50,000. It also produced figures showing ‘excess’ deaths (over and above the norm) in 11 countries. Before Covid-19, Barr’s team generally worked on long-term


stories. Not only has coronavirus meant a faster turnaround, but also statistics have become the spine of stories rather than underpinning them. This is unlikely to change for some time. “The [full] economic impact has yet to come,” she says. Dave West, deputy editor at Health Service Journal, says


data for Covid-19 deaths has generally been transparent. Testing is another matter, with the Department of Health and Social Care switching between a target for completed tests, then testing capacity and, eventually, including tests that were posted but not carried out. Health secretary Matt Hancock was twice chastised by the


UK Statistics Authority for the way his department appeared to manipulate figures. “There was intentional sleight of hand in relation to testing,” says West. HSJ is used to reporting health data and has compiled figures showing Covid-19 deaths (based on NHS press releases) well before the government’s daily totals. “We were the first publication to note there was a spike in the West Midlands,” West says. A map showing the number of deaths in hospitals around the country, also based on NHS data, was regarded by readers as particularly helpful in the early months of the pandemic. Figures showing how people travelled less and worked from home during the first months of lockdown were important in creating the impression that social distancing was observed. “If people read what others are doing, they’re more likely to comply,” he adds. Professor Jennifer Rogers, a vice-president at the Royal


Statistical Society, is more concerned. “It’s a really confusing time for journalists and the public,” she says. “We are seeing lots of data from different sources and there hasn’t been a


deaths and other issues. “It’s difficult to get consistency from hospital to hospital,” says Andy Worden, editor of London Live. “People want to know whether their local hospital is somewhere they wish to go for treatment.” Stories showing how many people recover from Covid-19 are especially popular on social media, providing figures are available. “Some hospitals are happy to give out figures every week,” says Worden. “Others want to save them for board meetings.” So, are journalists and statisticians performing well during the pandemic? Ed Humpherson, director general at the Office for Statistics Regulation (part of the UK Statistics Authority) says yes, although proper understanding of data by a wide audience depends on that data reaching the public domain. “Journalists across the sector appreciate the sources and the relationship between daily and weekly figures. I think journalists have done a really good job. Over time, the way data is presented has got better and better,” he says. “


Fact or fiction?


JOURNALISTS have been operating in a ‘territory of uncertainty’ during the pandemic but the overall quality of reporting has been high, says Tom Phillips, editor of fact-checking organisation Full Fact. While there are examples


of misreporting, journalists have generally become more cautious and better at explaining statistics. “In plenty of stories, they have pushed back and asked for extra data,” he says. Among stories flagged up


by Full Fact for not giving an accurate picture are:


• A Telegraph report


saying roughly half of UK adults were being ‘paid by the state’, which included pensioners as well as people who were furloughed. • Reports by three


nationals in May stating about 19 million people in Britain had recovered after contracting coronavirus. None made clear that the figure had come from statistical modelling not tests, although this was partly down to a University of Manchester press release. • An Express story that said diabetes was linked to


one quarter of Covid-19 deaths. NHS data showed about a quarter of people dying from Covid-19 also had diabetes, without pointing to any direct connection. Fact-checking


organisations have not been as busy during the pandemic as might be expected. Regardless, adds Phillips, journalists should be aware of the effect of poor-quality reporting during a public health crisis. This means checking the


source and reliability of data and asking what may lie behind surveys or stats that arrive in the newsroom. “Figures are not purely neutral things,” he says.


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