GOVERNMENT RELATIONS November Is All About Politics By Dave Ackerman
California Assembly and half the 40 Senate seats. Most of the focus is on a handful
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of races with the potential to shift the two-thirds majority to the Democrats in the Capitol. Te situation is made more complex because there are 22 same-party runoffs for legislative seats due to the 2010 voter approved “top two” primary system. Te fall ballot will feature the first same-party runoff for the U.S. Senate seat with Attorney General Kamala Harris and Representative Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, seeking to succeed Senator Barbara Boxer. In other races, there are 15 same-
party runoffs in the Assembly, five in the state Senate and seven in Congress, with most involving Democrats. Some of the fall campaigns will pick up where primary fights left off, with heavy outside spending by charter schools, oil companies, real estate interests and others. Republicans in the state
Legislature have a particular challenging election cycle this year. Te outcome in November will determine whether the GOP has enough seats in the state Assembly and Senate to maintain any say in legislative matters. Republicans’
ooking ahead to the November elections for the state Legislature, all 80 seats are up for grabs in the
number one objective is to keep Democrats from achieving a two-thirds majority in the Assembly and Senate. Dipping below that line could mean losing their ability to weigh in on, or block tax increases, gubernatorial veto overrides and legislatively-referred constitutional amendments – their last remaining points of legislative leverage. Republicans are largely hoping
to just hold onto the seats they currently have, as presidential election turnouts are generally more favorable to Democrats. To stay above a super minority, Republicans can afford to lose only one seat in the Assembly, while Senate Republicans can’t afford to lose any. Here are some of the top legislative
races to watch:
The Assembly Catharine Baker, an East Bay
Area Republican incumbent, is the only Bay Area Republican in the Legislature; therefore, her seat is important both functionally and symbolically. Democrats in the district have a 10 percent registration advantage, with 24 percent of voters claiming no party preference. In another do-or-die district for
Republicans, Torrance Republican Assemblyman David Hadley is again facing the Democrat he beat by only 706 votes in 2014. Democrats narrowly outpace Republicans in registration. Winning this seat was a major coup for the GOP in 2014, and retaining it would be as well. In the Antelope Valley, former
Democratic Assemblyman Steve Fox, ousted by Republican Tom Lackey of Palmdale in 2014, easily beat two other Democrats in the primary to emerge for a November rematch in the slightly Democratic-leaning
district. Fox’s campaign will struggle to overcome the $110,000 settlement the Assembly paid to resolve a lawsuit from a former employee. In the North Inland Empire, first-
term Republican incumbent Marc Steinorth of Rancho Cucamonga finished second of two candidates in the primary. Democrats have a one percentage point registration advantage with 22 percent of voters claiming no party preference. And in the South Inland Empire,
Republican incumbent Eric Linder got only 45.6 percent of the vote in the primary with the rest split between two Democrats. Democrats have a slight, 2 percentage point registration advantage with 21 percent of voters claiming no party preference. Orange County Assemblywoman
Young Kim was 9 percentage points behind Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva in the primary. In this district, regis- tered Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans, and 24 percent of voters claim no party preference. Kim’s seat presents one of the best pickup oppor- tunities for Democrats. Moderate Democrat Assembly-
woman Cheryl Brown, from San Bernardino, faces a challenge from fellow Democrat Eloise Reyes in a costly battle pitting an incumbent moderate against a liberal financed by environmental groups and activists for stricter gun laws. Teir primary race drew more than $2 million in
6 September/October 2016
California Constructor
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