THE BIG STORY
Calm before the Stormzy: Music retail holding out for ‘iconic’ Q4 artists
Aer a slow start to the quarter, sales could be poised for li-off with late releases for giing market from Stormzy, Coldplay and Harry Styles...
---- BY ANDRE PAINE ---- Your
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M
usic retail is hoping for a late Q4 surge after a sluggish start to the quarter. At the most important time of year for physical sales, Music Week research has revealed a lack of momentum for recent album releases.
The seven-week cumulative sales total for the Q4 Top 10 albums to date is 299,050, compared to 528,715 for the same period in 2018 and 732,723 in 2017.
However, several major titles have only just been released (November 22), including albums by Robbie Williams, Coldplay, Rod Stewart and Bing Crosby With The London Symphony Orchestra. Stormzy’s Heavy Is The Head and Harry Styles’ Fine Line are not out until December 13, while The Who’s comeback Who and Camila Cabello’s Romance are released a week earlier. “We can only hold so many titles in our top store base, so when you’ve got three, four or five big releases in one week, it does become quite hard to prioritise which are the ones you really want to back,” said Nicola Miller, buyer for music at Sainsbury’s supermarkets.
“It does feel quite late for some of them. If it’s a Christmas title, it gives you a very short window in which to sell it.” John Hirst, HMV head of music, described the schedule as “too backloaded”, while earlier Q4 titles have failed to connect. “If you compare that to last year, there were quite a lot of September and October titles still hanging around in the Top 10 – Rod Stewart, A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody,” he said. “So we’re going into Christmas at a standing start.” Of the Top 10 physical albums last week, only two had first charted more than three weeks earlier – Ed Sheeran’s No.6 Collaborations Project (Asylum/Atlantic) and Lewis Capaldi’s Divinely Uninspired To A Hellish Extent (EMI). Based purely on physical sales, the biggest-selling album between week 40 and week 46 was The Beatles’ Abbey Road (Universal/Apple Corps), which moved 60,655 copies, according to the Official Charts Company.
Over the same period in 2018, the No.1 LP on physical was Blood Red Roses (Decca) by Rod Stewart (96,858 sales). In Q4’s first half in 2017, the top-selling title on CD and vinyl was As You Were (Warner Records) by Liam Gallagher (122,974 sales). While Hirst said that the slow start to Q4 was “worrying”, Lewis Capaldi is bucking the trend and has issued a deluxe edition of his debut.
“That’s the one release that’s hung around all year,” said Hirst. “It always reacts when he goes on TV because he’s very charismatic, funny and likeable.”
Warner Music has three late contenders for Q4 glory with Coldplay’s Everyday Life, You’re In My Heart: Rod Stewart With The Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and Stormzy’s sophomore LP. “Christmas is still a hugely important time of year for the industry – and particularly traditional retail,” said Derek Allen, SVP, commercial at WMUK. “Feedback from our trade presentations back in early September made it very clear there was a huge appetite for the new Stormzy project.
“Our physical partners across the spectrum were adamant that Stormzy’s album should not be seen as something that existed exclusively in a digital space. So, from that moment on, we had to do everything we could to ensure a pre-Christmas release.” A delayed Brexit gave the major the confidence to push ahead with the release knowing that supplies would not be affected. “It feels like Stormzy is in the perfect position to really go over the top as a triple-A iconic artist,” said Hirst. “But we could have done with that coming out in October and still being No.1 now. 2020 is the big year for the Stormzy album, not 2019.” “Given what we saw over the summer with the Glastonbury appearance, it could be quite big for us,” said Miller. “It’s the same week as Harry Styles, so there could be a bit of a competition there.” Kim Bayley, CEO of the Entertainment Retailers Association, suggested that stores are used to coping with last-minute releases. “We are in the middle of a whole series of event releases, with a strong performance from Westlife and lots of anticipation around Coldplay coming,” she said. “The big question for retail is when or if the hoped-for pre-Christmas rush will begin.” Westlife’s comeback Spectrum secured opening sales above 60,000 last week. “This is going to be one of the biggest week one physical albums of year, and we’ve got ambitions to carry that forward to Christmas and into the new year,” said David Balls, senior marketing manager, Virgin EMI.
A disappointing Q4 result would be a further blow to physical music. Pure album sales are down 23.3% for the year to date, according to Official Charts Company data.
But Miller said there were some signs for optimism this year. “Things have definitely picked up over the last couple of weeks,” she said. “Big winners for us have been Ball & Boe. Celine Dion has been another huge title. The depth of releases for this Q4 is definitely much more focused on the physical market, which is really good for us.”
While acknowledging the “challenge” of stocking late releases, Miller said that titles could build momentum during the “pivotal three weeks where we’re going to do the main bulk of the volume”. “We’re confident that come the end of December all the sweat and toil will have been worthwhile,” added Allen.
04 | Music Week 25.11.19
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