Figure 3: Top 10 exporters of untreated oak (US$) and mirrored differences (%), 2019
Exports 2019 (US$m) US France
Belgium Germany Russia
Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Denmark Canada
$210.4 $199.2 $74.8 $63 $48
$18.8 $18.3 $16.3 $14.9 $13.7
Exports mirrored difference (%)
-1.3 87.0 3.2
55.5 30.4 4.4
23.0 15.9
580.6 219.3
Source: Coriolis Technologies China
Vietnam Belgium Canada Austria
Czech Republic Germany Spain
Netherlands Italy
Figure 4: Top 10 importers of untreated oak (US$) and mirrored differences (%), 2019
Imports 2019 (US$m)
$368.5 $45.7 $42.6 $33.4 $21.6 $18.7 $18.1 $17.6 $16.5 $15.4
Imports mirrored difference (%)
21.9 28.0 0.0 1.1
-1.0 6.1
32.6 -2.9 5.7
67.4 Source: Coriolis Technologies
The best way of measuring this illegal activity in trade terms is to consider the difference between what a country says it is exporting or importing and the ‘mirrored’ flow with its partner. If Country A exports more to Country B than Country B says it is importing, this suggests at best that the trade lacks transparency, or at worst that it contains illegal trade.8
By understanding the
size of the gap, a country’s policy stance towards illegal logging becomes evident – the larger the gap, the looser the regulatory framework to prevent illegal logging.
Figure 1 (see page 31) aims to illustrate the problem for the tropical hardwood ‘not elsewhere specified’ sector. This is a generic sector that captures the tropical hardwood products omitted from more specific classifications. It is a sector on the EU watchlist for illegal logging trade.9
Figure 1 shows the top 10 largest import flows in this sector by country for 2019. As imports are usually subject to tariffs they give a better picture of any inconsistencies
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between what a country says it is importing and what happens when all the trade is mirrored. It tells us that China appears to record its trade in this sector accurately, but other countries are falling short. Vietnam, for example, is highly divergent, and Germany has a divergence of nearly 200% on what it appeared to be importing officially and what it actually imported once everything was totalled up.
Rough hardwood data The same pattern applies for rough hardwood not elsewhere specified, another watchlist product. Figure 2 (see page 31) indicates a non-specific country, ‘Areas not elsewhere specified’ (Areas NES), which is the second largest importer of this product. It isn’t possible to determine the difference between what this region says it is importing and what it actually imports in percentage terms is, because all of its data is mirrored – that is, it does not report as an entity itself, but countries export to it. In other words, it embodies the illegal flows in this particular high-risk product.
Behind all of this is the fundamental paradox observed earlier: in emerging economies, as long as people’s lives depend on illegal trade, it will continue; and while consumers in developed world markets continue to demand the products of that illegal trade, there is no incentive to change.
If we intend to make a difference and create sustainable trade in every sense of the word, then sustainability targets need to include access to healthcare, protection against fraud and crime, educational and work opportunities and the right to housing and clean water as basics. In short, while the regulations, such as those ‘preventing’ illegal hardwood trade are welcome, they do not address the issue of communities needing alternative sources of revenue.
Deciduous woodland data As if to reinforce the point that it is developed world demand that is causing deforestation, untreated oak is also a watchlist sector, with deciduous woodland deforestation
Images: Alamy
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