4 INDUSTRY NEWS
FROM THE EDITOR
James Parker
The Government has tacitly accepted that the 1.5 million homes aren’t going to happen. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement revealed that the centre now expects there to be fewer than 1.3 million ‘cumulative net additions’ to the UK housing stock over the fi ve-year period to March 2030.
eeves tried to play down the gap between this fi gure and the 1.5 million manifesto promise as “touching distance,” and some might beg to differ. Others might also suggest that even that target looks extremely optimistic, if current conditions continue.
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The overnment’s ‘independent fi nancial body’ the ffi ce for Budget Responsibility produced the more cautious 1.3 million prediction in its March Economic and Fiscal utlook, focused around the likely short-term contribution of housebuilding to Reeves’ hoped for but elusive growth in the economy. This was the OBR’s most optimistic scenario, however, and said that the increases will mainly take place between 2022 due to the time needed to identify sites, develop local plans and overcome “capacity constraints in the sector.”
The also said that the 12 year low in net additions in 2022 would somehow become 30,000 additions a year by the end of the decade.” The slightly underwhelming good news is that by this point, housebuilding would be contributing a whopping 0.2 to D somewhat more impressive however when you realise it’s .bn.
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Commentators have understandably remarked that the OBR might be drastically underplaying the ‘capacity constraints’ in the housebuilding supply chain, if it assumes they will all be overcome within the next three years. Largely around skills and manpower shortages, these issues have to be quickly resolved the Education Department’s 00m training scheme is probably far from adequate, although it will hopefully produce 0,000 more staff, the Government says.
Housing Secretary Angela Rayner was typically bullish in February, saying there would be no excuse for not hitting the 1.5 million target. However, they are not speaking as one, and the Chancellor would later be getting in her excuses early for not meeting what would be a 0-year high in housebuilding, in a painfully different economic context.
The lanning and nfrastructure ill recently went through its second reading in the House of Commons. Without serious levers for housebuilders to fi nd and unlock sites quickly and cheaply, and circumvent planning constraints and green belt protestors, there is no way that it is going to be the panacea. The 2bn of investment in social and affordable homes next year is welcome, but it will only deliver 1,000 new homes. rownfi eld passports are another good idea, but they need to be expedited everywhere.
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think the answer, if we really want 1. million, is much more intervention from Government, alongside industry consultation on practicalities. Not forgetting more incentives and all at pace.
James Parker
Managing Editor James Parker
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