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DATA, STATISTICS AND TRENDS


As School Bus Production Spikes, So Do Alternative Vehicles?


Type C figures are strong while Type A market shuffles amid new industry alternative vehicle standards WRITTEN BY RYAN GRAY | RYAN@STNONLINE.COM


A


ny year that school bus production figures spike is cause for celebration, especially amid “anemic” growth in the larger trucking industry.


That is how Steve Tam, vice president of ACT


Research, put it to me early in the fall. Truck manufacturers were laying off workers, in part due to Trump administration tariffs and reduced purchase interest among companies. Class 8 forecasts were down by 20 to 25 percent. But he sounded more optimism for the bus market,


as production was up 11 percent in July alone. For school buses specifically, manufacturing


exhibited continued resiliency from pandemic- induced shortages despite tariff pressures with a 6.7-percent spike in overall output. But within those numbers, the market disruption provided by alternative vehicles appears to account for a big drop- off in smaller school buses. Total Type A small school bus production fell


almost 14 percent from 2023-2024, as Type 1 vehicles weighing under 10,000 pounds GVWR came in at 1,041 units compared to over three times as many as the previous year. The good news is larger Type A-2


school buses weighing over 10,000 pounds GVWR nearly doubled to 6,326 units. As School Transportation News articles and


conversations with attendees at STN EXPO and TSD conferences continue to indicate, school districts are foregoing the smaller Type A school buses for light-duty passenger vehicles to transport students experiencing homelessness and those with Individualized Education Programs. It should come as little surprise considering the National Congress on School Transportation last May approved for the first time, a section on the use of alternative transportation vehicles for student transportation. The Type C conventional category remained vibrant


as reported output increased over 17 percent to 30,654 units, the most since 31,834 for the 2018-2018 production cycle and the third-most over the past decade. School districts have long preferred Type Cs for home-to-school routes, and that trend has been buoyed in recent years by OEMs offering wheelchair lifts on their models, which has also further affected the Type A market. Type D transit-style school buses, on the other hand, came in at 2,324 units manufactured, or about 7


School Transportation News Annual School Bus Manufacturing Data


School Year


2024-2025 2023-2024


2022-2023 2021-2022


2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019


2017-2018 2016-2017


2015-2016 MFSAB


2,330 1,812


2,246 1,606 1,448 1,870 2,231 1,761 2,000 (est.) 1,061 (est.) Type A-1


3,661 1,041


3,519 4,010


2,827 3,361


2,589 1,948


2,338 2,978 *Based on OEM reports and estimated counts. Source: School Transportation News 13 Type A-2


4,887 6,326


3,310 2,081 2,932 4,404


6,641 6,671


7,356 6,424 Total Type A


8,538 7,367


6,829 6,091


5,759 7,765 9,230


8,719 9,694


9,402 Type C


26,083 30,654


29,098 24,117


23,101 25,965 31,834


31,554 32,291


29,757 Type D


3,004 2,324


2,601 2,665


2,616 2,948


3,790 4,508


4,145 4,143 Totals*


37,624 40,345


38,528 32,873


31,476 36,678 44,781


44,634 46,130


43,302


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