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DATA, STATISTICS AND TRENDS
Demand Continues to Outpace Supply, But Bus Output Still Best Since Pre-COVID
WRITTEN BY RYAN GRAY |
RYAN@STNONLINE.COM B
uoyed by the latest trough of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency funds, electric school buses rose to the third- most produced fuel type during the
latest production cycle, as reported to School Transportation News by manufacturers. An estimated 2,900 ESBs rolled off assembly
2023 Bus Table_P11.pdf 1 12/6/22 4:45 PM
lines over the past year, a 145-percent increase over the previous period. It is also noteworthy that ESBs supplanted propane in the hierarchy of fuel preference, especially as the latter is now only available from Blue Bird and Micro Bird via ROUSH CleanTech systems. IC Bus and Thomas Built Buses had offered propane buses on the PSI platform, which is no longer available to the school bus market. Both OEMs ostensibly await production of a Cummins propane engine, which is not expected until 2026. Even more interesting, diesel output spiked to nearly 23,000 units, the most since 26,897 before COVID-19. This rise comes despite the efforts of the EPA Clean School Bus Program to incentivize school districts and bus contractors to purchase zero-emissions vehicles and the California Air Resources Board Low NOx Heavy Duty Omnibus Regulation (alongside New York’s aggressive regulation requiring only zero- emissions purchases starting in 2027) mandating them into existence. It remains too soon to tell if the
additional diesel purchases indicate pre-buys ahead of the CARB rule taking effect with model-year 2024 engines and further reducing emissions through model-year 2027, or if the dearth of propane engines is driving student transporters back to diesel. Perhaps both, but either option is better than foregoing replacements altogether. Gasoline remained steady at over 9,600 units,
down slightly from the prior year but in the ballpark of the past five. That number could increase as fewer diesel engines are made available and as Cummins is expected to release its new octane engine next year. Overall, school bus manufacturing totalled 38,528, the most since before the COVID-19 pandemic. While representing a 17-percent increase from the previous year, some supply chain constraints continue. To a tee, the 10 school bus manufacturers that
responded to STN reported continued backlogs tied to their supply chains. Heading into 2023, several OEMs shared that their production was already booked, as they made up for late and deferred orders from 2022. “More specifically than chassis, frame rails appear to be the pinch point” for medium-duty trucks, commented Steve Tam, vice president of truck and bus for industry analyst ACT Research. Despite concerns about the availability of Type A cutaway chassis over the past couple of years, the approximately 6,829 units
School Transportation News Annual School Bus Manufacturing Data
School Year
2020-2021 2022-2023
2020-2021
2018 2019 2019-2020
2017 2018 2016 2017
2015 2016 2014 2015
2013 2014 MFSAB 2,246 1,606 1,448
1,761 2,231 1,870
2,000 (est.) 1,061 (est.)
1,585 (est.) 2,500 (est.) Type A-1 3,519 4,010 2,827
1,948 2,589 3,361
2,338 2,978
2,084 2,303 Type A-2 3,310 2,081 2,932
6,671 6,641 4,404
7,356 6,424 6,132 6,017 Total Type A 6,829 6,091 5,759
8,719 9,230 7,765
9,694
9,402 8,216
8,320 Type C 29,098 24,117 23,101
31,834 25,965
31,554 32,291
29,757 28,640
27,071 Type D 2,601 2,665 2,616
4,508 3,790 2,948
4,145 4,143 4,344 3,662 Totals* 38,528 32,873 31,476
44,634 44,781 36,678
46,130 43,302 41,200 39,053
*Total count does not include MFSAB, AAV or “white” buses that are typically used for commercial applications. Source: School Transportation News
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